+15.25 percentage points
The opening home win moves Sunderland from a 43.69% direct-qualification chance to 58.94%.
Sunderland's European return starts with a major top-eight swing
Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at the Stadium of Light. The verified final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect with the other eight completed 16 September finals held constant.
FINAL SCORESunderland 1-0 AZ
SUNDERLAND TOP EIGHT43.69% → 58.94%
SUNDERLAND POINTS14.2 → 15.6
SUNDERLAND FINISH8th → 5th
14.2 → 15.6
The result adds 1.4 mean projected points and moves Sunderland from eighth to fifth.
28.45% → 16.63%
AZ lose 1.2 projected points and move from 12th to 15th after the narrow defeat.
100,000 matched paths
The same seed and the same other eight final scores isolate this result from simulation noise.
CURRENT TABLE
Sunderland begin with three points and a clean sheet
MATCHED-PATH METHOD
Official schedule, verified final, no hidden strength change
EVIDENCE
Official full-time record and complete UEFA schedule
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