Official 108-match league-phase schedule imported · league phase begins 15 October 2026108 fixtures · 100,000 paths
EUROPE · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

UEFA Conference League

36-club league phase · six official matches per club · top eight advance · positions 9–24 enter play-offs

FORECAST LEADERAtalanta17.9% to win
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES1080 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE28%10/36 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION17,594 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.55 : 1.25Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKFri 25 Sept, 01:00Checking the strongest available live result sources.
THINNER FREE COVERAGE

Completed-match evidence covers 10 of 36 clubs. The remaining teams use conservative, explicitly labelled cross-league priors until stronger evidence is available.

BASELINE FORECAST

Conference League probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Atalanta

17.9%TO WIN

79.1% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 17.9% chance of winning the tournament.

13.3 expected pts9–18 range
02

Twente

13.6%TO WIN

74.1% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 13.6% chance of winning the tournament.

13 expected pts8–18 range
03

Sporting Braga

14.9%TO WIN

74.4% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 14.9% chance of winning the tournament.

13 expected pts8–18 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 1

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R1
LuganovCrvena Zvezda

HOME39%fair 2.56

DRAW26%fair 3.90

AWAY35%fair 2.83

xG 1.44–1.35score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R1
Hajduk SplitvAjax

HOME22%fair 4.56

DRAW23%fair 4.34

AWAY55%fair 1.82

xG 1.08–1.85score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R1
GentvAarhus

HOME56%fair 1.79

DRAW23%fair 4.37

AWAY21%fair 4.69

xG 1.86–1.06score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R1
EgnatiavMidtjylland

HOME26%fair 3.80

DRAW25%fair 4.08

AWAY49%fair 2.03

xG 1.16–1.67score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R1
KuPS KuopiovTrabzonspor

HOME18%fair 5.46

DRAW21%fair 4.66

AWAY60%fair 1.66

xG 1.01–2.01score 1–1
Thu 15 Oct, 17:45R1
MjällbyvInter Club d'Escaldes

HOME45%fair 2.22

DRAW25%fair 3.97

AWAY30%fair 3.36

xG 1.57–1.23score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top eight is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

108 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

UEFA Conference League predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current UEFA Conference League simulator resolves 108 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Atalanta is the forecast leader on 13.3 projected points with a 17.9% tournament win probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Atalanta13.3 pts17.9%
  2. 2Twente13.0 pts13.6%
  3. 3Sporting Braga13.0 pts14.9%
  4. 4Monaco11.4 pts10.8%
  5. 5Ajax11.2 pts11.0%
  6. 6Trabzonspor11.1 pts6.4%
  7. 7Getafe10.9 pts4.6%
  8. 8Panathinaikos10.9 pts5.2%
  9. 9Hearts10.4 pts4.9%
  10. 10Brighton & Hove Albion10.0 pts3.3%
  11. 11Copenhagen10.0 pts1.5%
  12. 12Midtjylland9.4 pts0.7%
  13. 13Crvena Zvezda9.1 pts0.8%
  14. 14Gent9.0 pts0.7%
  15. 15Sport-Club Freiburg8.6 pts2.1%
  16. 16Lugano8.3 pts0.3%
  17. 17Brann8.2 pts0.2%
  18. 18Hajduk Split8.0 pts0.2%
  19. 19Nordsjælland7.6 pts0.3%
  20. 20Sint-Truidense7.3 pts0.1%
  21. 21Riga7.2 pts0.0%
  22. 22Pafos6.9 pts0.1%
  23. 23Aarhus6.7 pts0.0%
  24. 24Egnatia6.6 pts0.0%
  25. 25Jablonec6.5 pts0.0%
  26. 26Kairat Almaty6.4 pts0.0%
  27. 27CSKA Sofia6.3 pts0.1%
  28. 28Universitatea Craiova6.3 pts0.0%
  29. 29Mjällby6.3 pts0.0%
  30. 30Iberia Tbilisi6.1 pts0.0%
  31. 31Borac5.9 pts0.0%
  32. 32Thun5.7 pts0.0%
  33. 33KuPS Kuopio5.7 pts0.0%
  34. 34Kauno Žalgiris5.6 pts0.0%
  35. 35Inter Club d'Escaldes5.6 pts0.0%
  36. 36Lincoln Red Imps5.0 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest UEFA Conference League model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the UEFA Conference League simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and knockout rounds are counted.

Who is predicted to win the UEFA Conference League in 2026/27?

Atalanta currently leads with a 17.9% tournament win probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.