Final 36-team league-phase field and all 24 play-off ties verified · model draw active until UEFA publishes the draw108 fixtures · 100,000 paths
EUROPE · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

UEFA Conference League

36-club league phase · six official matches per club · top eight advance · positions 9–24 enter play-offs

FORECAST LEADERAtalanta18.1% to win
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES1080 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE28%10/36 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION17,594 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.55 : 1.25Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKThu 27 Aug, 22:59Checking the strongest available live result sources.
PRE-DRAW MODE

The club field and pairings are a model state while qualifying is in progress. They will be replaced by UEFA’s confirmed field and draw, without treating provisional clubs as confirmed inputs.

THINNER FREE COVERAGE

Completed-match evidence covers 10 of 36 clubs. The remaining teams use conservative, explicitly labelled cross-league priors until stronger evidence is available.

BASELINE FORECAST

Conference League probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Atalanta

18.1%TO WIN

89.1% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 18.1% chance of winning the tournament.

15.1 expected pts11–18 range
02

Sporting Braga

15.1%TO WIN

86.0% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 15.1% chance of winning the tournament.

14.7 expected pts10–18 range
03

Brighton & Hove Albion

4.3%TO WIN

72.7% chance of a top-eight league-phase finish and 4.3% chance of winning the tournament.

13.7 expected pts9–18 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 1

Model-drawn opening matchups

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

17 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
AtalantavInter Club d'Escaldes

HOME86%fair 1.16

DRAW9%fair 10.61

AWAY4%fair 23.44

xG 3.21–0.63score 3–0
17 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
MjällbyvMonaco

HOME11%fair 8.82

DRAW17%fair 5.96

AWAY72%fair 1.39

xG 0.87–2.45score 0–2
17 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
Brighton & Hove AlbionvKauno Žalgiris

HOME74%fair 1.34

DRAW16%fair 6.27

AWAY10%fair 10.32

xG 2.48–0.78score 2–0
17 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
Lincoln Red ImpsvAjax

HOME12%fair 8.14

DRAW18%fair 5.58

AWAY70%fair 1.43

xG 0.86–2.32score 0–2
17 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
Sport-Club FreiburgvEgnatia

HOME71%fair 1.41

DRAW18%fair 5.69

AWAY12%fair 8.63

xG 2.34–0.83score 2–0
17 Sept 2026 · time provisionalR1
Iberia TbilisivGetafe

HOME18%fair 5.42

DRAW23%fair 4.28

AWAY58%fair 1.72

xG 0.89–1.79score 0–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top eight is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

108 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

UEFA Conference League predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current UEFA Conference League simulator resolves 108 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Atalanta is the forecast leader on 15.1 projected points with a 18.1% tournament win probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Atalanta15.1 pts18.1%
  2. 2Sporting Braga14.7 pts15.1%
  3. 3Brighton & Hove Albion13.7 pts4.3%
  4. 4Monaco13.2 pts11.5%
  5. 5Sport-Club Freiburg13.1 pts3.2%
How does the UEFA Conference League simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and knockout rounds are counted.

Who is predicted to win the UEFA Conference League in 2026/27?

Atalanta currently leads with a 18.1% tournament win probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.