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VERIFIED SCHEDULE · CONFERENCE LEAGUE

The real fixture list changes the shape of the league phase

UEFA's official 108-match schedule now replaces the provisional balanced draw. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the effect of opponent strength and home-away allocation before the first league-phase match.

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FREIBURG TOP EIGHT64.68% → 18.83%
FREIBURG FINISH5th → 15th
TWENTE TOP EIGHT55.06% → 74.11%
OFFICIAL FIXTURES108 imported
FREIBURG SCHEDULE SWING

64.68% → 18.83%

Freiburg fall from 5th to 15th and lose 4.5 projected points after the official opponents replace the provisional draw.

BRIGHTON TOP EIGHT

72.73% → 33.76%

Brighton move from 3rd to 10th, with projected points dropping from 13.7 to 10.0.

TWENTE CLIMB

8th → 2nd

Twente's top-eight probability rises by 19.05 percentage points to 74.11% on the verified fixture list.

BRANN CLIMB

31st → 17th

Brann gain 3.1 projected points and move into 17th, the largest upward table shift in the matched comparison.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one verified schedule change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run uses the site's previous balanced six-match model draw. The after run uses UEFA's published 108-match league-phase schedule.100,000 paths · seed 2,958,288,531
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 2,958,288,531 and 100,000 paths, with team ratings, competition rules and every other sporting input held constant.100,000 paths · seed 2,958,288,531
ASSUMPTION 3No league-phase match had been completed at verification time, so the current standings remain level while the predicted final table changes with opponent strength and home-away allocation.100,000 paths · seed 2,958,288,531
ASSUMPTION 4Kick-off times are stored in UTC from UEFA's published CET schedule. The league phase begins on 15 October 2026.100,000 paths · seed 2,958,288,531
EVIDENCE

Official UEFA schedule and live forecast

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