Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth: the race shifts

Bournemouth surge; United slide

Manchester United's modeled top-six chance falls from 43.65% to 21.93%, with projected points moving from 56.6 to 52.2. Bournemouth's top-six chance rises from 11.27% to 30.88%, while projected points rise from 48.9 to 54.3.

The current and predicted tables are deliberately separate: Manchester City remain first in the live table, Arsenal are second on goal difference, while Bournemouth move to seventh and Manchester United to eleventh in the predicted final table.

Manchester United result page ↗ · Independent match coverage ↗

Other major Sunday movements

Liverpool's 2-0 win raises their top-four probability from 54.95% to 70.76%; Brighton fall from 50.79% to 28.08%. Newcastle's 2-0 win at Crystal Palace raises their top-six probability from 11.41% to 26.38% and moves them from 12th to eighth in the predicted table.

Verification method

• Every score is final and corroborated across two independent domains, led by an official league or club source.
• Each incremental comparison changes only one completed score while holding the other Sunday results and every model input fixed.
• Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.
• The before and after forecasts use the same deterministic seed and 100,000 matched paths.

HORIZON 6.2 · verified 25 October 2026. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.