Sunderland vs Crystal Palace prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Sunderland win the strongest outcome at 43.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Crystal Palace scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.2%
9.1%
7.6%
7.5%
6.9%
Sunderland 1.62 · Crystal Palace 1.33
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
37.8% to 51.3%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 18
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Crystal Palace.
Matchweek 16
Saturday, 19 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.23 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.047 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.007 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.093 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Sunderland win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 43.4%. The draw is 26.1%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Crystal Palace, with an estimated probability of 12.2%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.9% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 56.5% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace is scheduled for Saturday, 19 December 2026, time provisional.