Newcastle United vs Sunderland prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 60.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW50.5 projected points
SunderlandSUN37.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Sunderland scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.0%
9.9%
8.9%
7.5%
7.0%
Newcastle 2.14 · Sunderland 1.11
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
55.5% to 64.1%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
10 vs 20
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Sunderland.
Matchweek 14
Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.45 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.02 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.053 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.028 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Sunderland?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 60.0%. The draw is 21.7%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Sunderland?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Sunderland, with an estimated probability of 10.0%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Sunderland?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 63.1% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Sunderland?
Newcastle United vs Sunderland is scheduled for Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional.
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