Everton vs Sunderland prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 55.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50 projected points
SunderlandSUN37.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Sunderland scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.8%
9.9%
9.9%
9.7%
6.8%
Everton 1.81 · Sunderland 1.02
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
49.8% to 59.3%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 20
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Sunderland.
Matchweek 17
Saturday, 26 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.19 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.018 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.019 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.101 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Sunderland prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Sunderland?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 55.1%. The draw is 24.7%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Sunderland?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Sunderland, with an estimated probability of 11.8%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Sunderland?
The model gives both teams to score a 54.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 53.6% probability.
When is Everton vs Sunderland?
Everton vs Sunderland is scheduled for Saturday, 26 December 2026, time provisional.
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