Everton vs Sunderland prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Everton win the strongest outcome at 54.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Sunderland scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.9%
10.0%
9.8%
9.8%
7.0%
Everton 1.79 · Sunderland 1.01
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
48.4% to 60.3%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 19
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Sunderland.
Matchweek 17
Saturday, 26 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.19 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.018 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.046 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.071 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Sunderland prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Sunderland?
Everton win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 54.8%. The draw is 24.9%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Sunderland?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Sunderland, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Sunderland?
The model gives both teams to score a 53.8% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 53.0% probability.
When is Everton vs Sunderland?
Everton vs Sunderland is scheduled for Saturday, 26 December 2026, time provisional.