Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 59.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.3%
9.9%
9.2%
8.1%
6.9%
Aston Villa 2.08 · Crystal Palace 1.08
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
53.5% to 66.5%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 18
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.
Matchweek 14
Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.26 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.063 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.045 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.003 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 59.7%. The draw is 22.2%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 1-1 Crystal Palace, with an estimated probability of 10.3%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives both teams to score a 58.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 61.1% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace is scheduled for Saturday, 5 December 2026, time provisional.