THE FOOTBALL SIMULATORCreate free account
VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE · 31 OCTOBER 2026

Villa's top-four probability falls 7.15 points after Fulham draw

The 1-1 final is locked into the current table and a matched 100,000-path forecast. The comparison holds every other sporting input constant and separates current standings from the predicted final table.

Open live forecastExplore forecasts free
FINAL SCOREAston Villa 1-1 Fulham
VILLA TOP FOUR21.75% → 14.60%
VILLA POINTS58.0 → 56.1
FULHAM RELEGATION10.75% → 8.93%
ASTON VILLA TOP FOUR

21.75% → 14.60%

The draw removes 7.15 percentage points from Villa's modeled Champions League qualification chance.

ASTON VILLA POINTS

58.0 → 56.1

Villa lose 1.9 projected points while remaining 6th in the mean predicted table.

FULHAM SURVIVAL

10.75% → 8.93%

Fulham gain 0.7 projected points and move from 13th to 12th in the mean predicted table.

NICOLAS JACKSON GOLDEN BOOT

1.80% → 1.34%

His modeled place probability changes from 9.33% to 7.59% under the same matched-path comparison.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The 1-1 final is accepted only after Aston Villa's official report and Reuters independently corroborate the score.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2The Premier League's official fixture amendment supplies the corrected Saturday 20:00 GMT kickoff.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3Before and after runs use the same seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, availability inputs and remaining schedule; only this completed score changes.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 4Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 5The Golden Boot counterfactual uses the same matched season paths and the current verified player model; no unconfirmed report changes a core input.100,000 paths · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Official report, independent corroboration and corrected kickoff

What changed in the live forecast

The current table now records nine played matches for both clubs and the 1-1 score is resolved in every season path. The predicted final table is still a probability model, not a claim that the current order will persist.

HORIZON 6.2 · SCORER 1.1 · 100,000 matched paths · verified 1 November 2026. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.

FREE ACCOUNT · NO CARD REQUIRED

Follow your club, not a generic feed

Create your account, then optionally save a Premier League club to a personalised dashboard with its projected finish, projected points and major season probabilities. The live forecast remains free to explore.

  • Saved club dashboard
  • Live probability view
  • Member referral rewards
Create free accountCompare free and Pro