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VERIFIED RESULT · BUNDESLIGA

Late Werder comeback checks Dortmund's title momentum

The verified 2-2 draw is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the effect of Werder's two late goals.

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FINAL SCOREDortmund 2-2 Werder
DORTMUND TITLE31.63% → 26.19%
DORTMUND POINTS70.7 → 69.3
WERDER RELEGATION35.21% → 32.01%
DORTMUND TITLE SWING

-5.44 percentage points

The draw lowers Dortmund's title probability from 31.63% to 26.19%.

DORTMUND PROJECTED POINTS

70.7 → 69.3

Conceding twice after the 87th minute removes 1.4 points from Dortmund's final-table projection.

WERDER RELEGATION

35.21% → 32.01%

The away point cuts Werder's relegation probability by 3.20 percentage points.

WERDER PROJECTED POINTS

37.1 → 37.7

The comeback adds 0.6 projected points while Werder remain 15th in the mean table.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Borussia Dortmund against Werder Bremen unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-2 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260102
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260102 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260102
ASSUMPTION 3Every earlier completed Bundesliga match is held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates the effect of the late draw.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260102
EVIDENCE

Official competition data and independent reporting

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