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VERIFIED RESULT · BUNDESLIGA

Schalke's survival margin narrows after goalless draw

The verified 0-0 final score is locked into the live table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on Schalke and Elversberg.

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FINAL SCORESchalke 0-0 Elversberg
SCHALKE RELEGATION23.00% → 25.43%
SCHALKE POINTS39.4 → 38.7
ELVERSBERG RELEGATION18.40% → 17.96%
SCHALKE RELEGATION SWING

+2.43 percentage points

The home draw raises Schalke's relegation probability from 23.00% to 25.43%.

SCHALKE PROJECTED POINTS

39.4 → 38.7

The verified result removes 0.7 points from Schalke's projection while they remain 13th.

ELVERSBERG RELEGATION

18.40% → 17.96%

Elversberg's relegation probability improves by 0.44 percentage points.

ELVERSBERG PROJECTED POINTS

40.6 → 40.4

The away point leaves Elversberg 11th in the predicted final table.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Schalke against Elversberg unresolved. The after run locks the verified 0-0 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260920 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920
ASSUMPTION 3Every earlier completed Bundesliga match is held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates the goalless draw.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260920
EVIDENCE

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