VERIFIED RESULT · BUNDESLIGA

Dortmund strengthen their Bundesliga title challenge

The verified 1-0 away win is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on Dortmund and Stuttgart.

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FINAL SCOREStuttgart 0-1 Dortmund

DORTMUND TITLE25.91% → 31.56%

DORTMUND POINTS69.1 → 70.7

STUTTGART TOP FOUR51.24% → 44.17%

DORTMUND TITLE SWING

+5.65 percentage points

The away win lifts Dortmund's title probability from 25.91% to 31.56%.

DORTMUND PROJECTED POINTS

69.1 → 70.7

The verified result adds 1.6 points to Dortmund's final-table projection.

STUTTGART TOP FOUR

51.24% → 44.17%

Stuttgart's top-four probability falls by 7.07 percentage points.

STUTTGART PROJECTED POINTS

58.1 → 56.8

The home defeat removes 1.3 projected points while Stuttgart remain fifth in the mean table.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only VfB Stuttgart against Borussia Dortmund unresolved. The after run locks the verified 0-1 final score.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260919

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260919 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260919

ASSUMPTION 3Every earlier completed Bundesliga match is held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates Dortmund's away win.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260919

EVIDENCE

Official competition data and independent reporting

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