FRANCE · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0
Ligue 1
18 clubs · 34 matches each · European qualification and relegation pressure
FORECAST LEADERParis Saint-Germain55.5% title
BASELINE FORECAST
Ligue 1 probability leaders
The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.
Paris Saint-Germain
55.5%TITLE55.5% title probability, 93.2% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.
LOSC Lille
13.4%TITLE13.4% title probability, 64.1% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.
AS Monaco
13.3%TITLE13.3% title probability, 64.1% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 7
Next fixture probabilities
Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.
Le Mans FCvToulouse FC
HOME34%fair 2.92
DRAW25%fair 4.06
AWAY41%fair 2.43
RC Strasbourg AlsacevParis Saint-Germain
HOME28%fair 3.59
DRAW23%fair 4.35
AWAY49%fair 2.03
LOSC LillevStade Brestois 29
HOME66%fair 1.52
DRAW19%fair 5.21
AWAY15%fair 6.67
Estac TroyesvRC Lens
HOME24%fair 4.17
DRAW23%fair 4.34
AWAY53%fair 1.89
Angers SCOvOlympique de Marseille
HOME19%fair 5.25
DRAW21%fair 4.75
AWAY60%fair 1.67
Havre Athletic ClubvAJ Auxerre
HOME24%fair 4.24
DRAW23%fair 4.39
AWAY54%fair 1.87
Top four is modelled directly
The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.
306 matches priced independently
Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.
Move a club’s strength, then rerun
The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.