Published 2026/27 schedule captured306 fixtures · 100,000 paths
FRANCE · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

Ligue 1

18 clubs · 34 matches each · European qualification and relegation pressure

FORECAST LEADERParis Saint-Germain49.1% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES30611 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE94%17/18 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION1,678 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.55 : 1.28Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Ligue 1 probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Paris Saint-Germain

49.1%TITLE

49.1% title probability, 90.1% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

67 expected pts56–78 range
02

RC Lens

13.8%TITLE

13.8% title probability, 60.6% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

60.2 expected pts48–72 range
03

LOSC Lille

11.7%TITLE

11.7% title probability, 58.2% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

59.7 expected pts48–71 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 2

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Fri 28 Aug, 19:45FT · R2
LOSC Lille2–2Paris Saint-Germain

HOME35%fair 2.90

DRAW24%fair 4.10

AWAY41%fair 2.43

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR2
RC Strasbourg AlsacevRC Lens

HOME36%fair 2.74

DRAW25%fair 4.05

AWAY39%fair 2.58

xG 1.36–1.41score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR2
AJ AuxerrevAngers SCO

HOME61%fair 1.65

DRAW21%fair 4.68

AWAY18%fair 5.52

xG 1.90–0.93score 1–0
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR2
Stade Brestois 29vToulouse FC

HOME36%fair 2.79

DRAW25%fair 4.07

AWAY40%fair 2.53

xG 1.36–1.44score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR2
FC LorientvEstac Troyes

HOME50%fair 2.00

DRAW23%fair 4.34

AWAY27%fair 3.71

xG 1.73–1.21score 1–1
29 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR2
Olympique LyonnaisvHavre Athletic Club

HOME74%fair 1.35

DRAW15%fair 6.46

AWAY11%fair 9.52

xG 2.49–0.83score 2–0
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top four is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

306 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

Ligue 1 predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current Ligue 1 simulator resolves 306 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Paris Saint-Germain is the forecast leader on 67.0 projected points with a 49.1% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain67.0 pts49.1%
  2. 2RC Lens60.2 pts13.8%
  3. 3LOSC Lille59.7 pts11.7%
  4. 4Olympique de Marseille58.2 pts9.1%
  5. 5AS Monaco56.9 pts6.5%
How does the Ligue 1 simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the Ligue 1 in 2026/27?

Paris Saint-Germain currently leads with a 49.1% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.