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VERIFIED RESULT · LIGUE 1

Nice score five and cut their relegation risk by 3.49 points

The 5-2 final is locked into the current Ligue 1 table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how this result changes Nice and Rennes without moving any other input.

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FINAL SCORENice 5-2 Rennes
NICE RELEGATION7.63% → 4.14%
NICE POINTS41.9 → 43.7
RENNES TOP FOUR42.38% → 33.89%
NICE RELEGATION

−3.49 pts

Modeled relegation risk falls from 7.63% to 4.14%.

NICE PROJECTION

13th → 12th

Projected points rise by 1.8, from 41.9 to 43.7.

RENNES TOP FOUR

−8.49 pts

Rennes fall from 42.38% to 33.89% for a top-four finish.

RENNES PROJECTION

4th → 5th

Projected points fall from 57.4 to 55.8.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The 5-2 final was accepted only after both clubs' official reports independently confirmed the score.100,000 paths · seed 571318221
ASSUMPTION 2Before and after use the same Ligue 1 seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedule and every earlier completed result; only Nice 5-2 Rennes changes.100,000 paths · seed 571318221
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 571318221
EVIDENCE

Both clubs confirm the final score

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