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VERIFIED RESULT · LIGUE 1

Marseille reopen their European route

Amine Harit and Himad Abdelli scored as Marseille won 2-0 at Troyes. The verified final enters the recorded standings, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on the predicted final table.

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FINAL SCORETroyes 0-2 Marseille
MARSEILLE TOP SIX44.90% → 51.28%
MARSEILLE TOP FOUR22.03% → 26.64%
MARSEILLE POINTS52.8 → 54.0
TOP-SIX SWING

+6.38 percentage points

Marseille move from eighth to seventh in the predicted final standings.

TOP-FOUR ROUTE

22.03% → 26.64%

The away win adds 1.2 projected points.

TROYES RELEGATION

35.10% → 40.29%

Troyes fall from 15th to 16th in the predicted final table.

RECORDED TABLE

Marseille 13th · Troyes 17th

Both clubs have completed six verified league matches.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Troyes versus Marseille unresolved; the after run locks the verified 0-2 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260827 and 100,000 matched paths. Every other recorded result and team-strength input is unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3The recorded table uses completed results; predicted rank and projected points remain model estimates, not guarantees.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Competition and match-report sources

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