VERIFIED RESULT · LIGUE 1

Angers give their survival outlook a lift

The verified 2-0 home win is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on Angers and Troyes.

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FINAL SCOREAngers 2-0 Troyes

ANGERS RELEGATION71.63% → 62.66%

ANGERS POINTS29.7 → 31.4

TROYES RELEGATION25.40% → 32.71%

ANGERS RELEGATION SWING

-8.97 percentage points

Angers' relegation probability falls from 71.63% to 62.66%.

ANGERS PROJECTED POINTS

29.7 → 31.4

The verified result adds 1.7 points to Angers' final-table projection.

TROYES RELEGATION

25.40% → 32.71%

Troyes' relegation probability rises by 7.32 percentage points.

TROYES MEAN POSITION

13th → 15th

The away defeat moves Troyes down two places in the mean table.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Angers against Troyes unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-0 final score.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260919

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260919 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260919

ASSUMPTION 3Every earlier completed Ligue 1 match is held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates Angers' home win.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260919

EVIDENCE

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