VERIFIED RESULT · LIGUE 1

PSG's win in Marseille restores a majority title chance

The 2-1 final score is locked into the live Ligue 1 table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how PSG's away win changes both clubs' projected seasons.

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FINAL SCOREMarseille 1-2 PSG

PSG TITLE44.55% → 52.03%

PSG POINTS65.8 → 67.3

MARSEILLE TOP FOUR27.11% → 21.50%

PSG TITLE SWING

+7.48 pts

PSG move back above 50% to win Ligue 1 after the away victory.

PSG PROJECTED POINTS

65.8 → 67.3

The result adds 1.5 points to PSG's mean season projection.

MARSEILLE TOP FOUR

27.11% → 21.50%

Marseille's top-four probability falls by 5.61 percentage points.

MARSEILLE TOP SIX

50.31% → 43.77%

The defeat also removes 1.2 points from Marseille's mean projection.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Marseille versus Paris Saint-Germain unresolved. The after run locks the verified 1-2 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260923

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260923 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260923

ASSUMPTION 3Auxerre 2-1 Brest and Nice 2-1 Lille are held constant in both runs.100,000 paths · seed 260923

ASSUMPTION 4Completed results update the live Ligue 1 table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260923

EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live forecast

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