VERIFIED RESULT · LIGUE 1

Lorient narrow Paris FC's European route

The verified final score enters the recorded-results standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate this result's effect on predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCORELorient 1-0 Paris FC

PARIS FC TOP FOUR27.80% → 21.81%

PARIS FC TOP SIX51.66% → 44.14%

LORIENT RELEGATION10.86% → 7.00%

PARIS FC TOP-FOUR SWING

6.00 percentage points down

The away defeat removes 1.4 projected points.

PARIS FC TOP SIX

51.66% → 44.14%

The model still ranks Paris FC seventh in predicted final standings.

LORIENT SURVIVAL SWING

10.86% → 7.00%

The home win adds 1.7 projected points.

RECORDED TABLE

Paris FC 5th · Lorient 8th

Both clubs have completed six verified league matches.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Lorient versus Paris FC unresolved; the after run locks the verified 1-0 final.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261010

ASSUMPTION 2Both runs use seed 20261010 and 100,000 matched paths. Every other recorded result and club input is unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261010

ASSUMPTION 3The recorded table uses completed results; projected final standings remain model estimates, not guarantees.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261010

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