Published 2026/27 schedule and verified results through Torino 2-1 Udinese on 12 October captured380 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ITALY · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

Serie A

20 clubs · 38 matches each · European qualification and three relegation places

FORECAST LEADERInter62.8% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES38060 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%20/20 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION1,900 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.35 : 1.19Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKMon 12 Oct, 22:08Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Serie A probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Inter

62.8%TITLE

62.8% title probability, 95.8% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

78.4 expected pts67–90 range
02

Roma

16.3%TITLE

16.3% title probability, 76.7% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

70.8 expected pts59–82 range
03

Napoli

8.0%TITLE

8.0% title probability, 61.0% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

67.7 expected pts56–79 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 7

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

16 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR7
FrosinonevSassuolo

HOME40%fair 2.49

DRAW26%fair 3.81

AWAY34%fair 2.98

xG 1.42–1.28score 1–1
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR7
VeneziavNapoli

HOME21%fair 4.66

DRAW25%fair 4.05

AWAY54%fair 1.86

xG 0.96–1.68score 0–1
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR7
BolognavInter

HOME24%fair 4.21

DRAW25%fair 4.01

AWAY51%fair 1.95

xG 1.04–1.65score 1–1
17 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR7
RomavGenoa

HOME63%fair 1.59

DRAW22%fair 4.50

AWAY15%fair 6.67

xG 1.87–0.78score 1–0
18 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR7
UdinesevLecce

HOME49%fair 2.03

DRAW27%fair 3.73

AWAY24%fair 4.20

xG 1.48–0.94score 1–0
18 Oct 2026 · time provisionalR7
FiorentinavComo

HOME32%fair 3.12

DRAW27%fair 3.72

AWAY41%fair 2.44

xG 1.19–1.38score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top four is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

380 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

Serie A predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current Serie A simulator resolves 380 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Inter is the forecast leader on 78.4 projected points with a 62.8% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Inter78.4 pts62.8%
  2. 2Roma70.8 pts16.3%
  3. 3Napoli67.7 pts8.0%
  4. 4Juventus65.4 pts4.9%
  5. 5Como64.2 pts3.5%
  6. 6Lazio61.5 pts1.8%
  7. 7Milan60.7 pts1.4%
  8. 8Atalanta60.3 pts1.2%
  9. 9Bologna49.9 pts0.0%
  10. 10Fiorentina48.5 pts0.0%
  11. 11Frosinone47.7 pts0.0%
  12. 12Cagliari46.5 pts0.0%
  13. 13Sassuolo46.0 pts0.0%
  14. 14Torino43.9 pts0.0%
  15. 15Udinese43.4 pts0.0%
  16. 16Parma39.9 pts0.0%
  17. 17Genoa39.0 pts0.0%
  18. 18Monza38.7 pts0.0%
  19. 19Venezia37.0 pts0.0%
  20. 20Lecce36.4 pts0.0%
VERIFIED CHANGE LOG

Latest Serie A model analysis

Completed results and confirmed developments with exact, source-backed probability changes.

Browse the full analysis archive →
How does the Serie A simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the Serie A in 2026/27?

Inter currently leads with a 62.8% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.