Published 2026/27 schedule captured380 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ITALY · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

Serie A

20 clubs · 38 matches each · European qualification and three relegation places

FORECAST LEADERInter48.0% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES38011 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE100%20/20 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION1,900 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.35 : 1.19Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
BASELINE FORECAST

Serie A probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Inter

48.0%TITLE

48.0% title probability, 90.1% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

75.1 expected pts63–87 range
02

Napoli

16.5%TITLE

16.5% title probability, 68.9% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

68.9 expected pts56–81 range
03

Roma

13.8%TITLE

13.8% title probability, 64.3% for top four and 0.0% danger risk.

68 expected pts55–81 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 2

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

Fri 28 Aug, 19:45FT · R2
Milan2–0Venezia

HOME53%fair 1.87

DRAW24%fair 4.09

AWAY22%fair 4.53

FULL-TIME RESULTLOCKED IN MODEL
Sat 29 Aug, 17:30R2
FiorentinavFrosinone

HOME49%fair 2.05

DRAW26%fair 3.89

AWAY26%fair 3.90

xG 1.57–1.07score 1–1
Sat 29 Aug, 17:30R2
MonzavUdinese

HOME36%fair 2.81

DRAW27%fair 3.65

AWAY37%fair 2.70

xG 1.24–1.27score 1–1
Sat 29 Aug, 17:30R2
SassuolovTorino

HOME42%fair 2.39

DRAW27%fair 3.75

AWAY31%fair 3.18

xG 1.41–1.19score 1–1
Sat 29 Aug, 19:45R2
JuventusvParma

HOME60%fair 1.66

DRAW23%fair 4.30

AWAY16%fair 6.07

xG 1.79–0.81score 1–0
Sun 30 Aug, 17:30R2
NapolivComo

HOME45%fair 2.23

DRAW27%fair 3.74

AWAY28%fair 3.52

xG 1.45–1.10score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Top four is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

380 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

Serie A predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current Serie A simulator resolves 380 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Inter is the forecast leader on 75.1 projected points with a 48.0% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Inter75.1 pts48.0%
  2. 2Napoli68.9 pts16.5%
  3. 3Roma68.0 pts13.8%
  4. 4Juventus66.5 pts10.3%
  5. 5Como62.2 pts3.9%
How does the Serie A simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the Serie A in 2026/27?

Inter currently leads with a 48.0% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.