Thursday’s Serie A finals reshape two races

Lecce’s relegation risk rises 5.70 points

The 5-1 defeat moves Lecce from 18th to 20th in the predicted final table. Their projected total falls from 37.6 to 36.6 points, while modeled relegation probability rises from 46.28% to 51.98%.

That is a 5.70 percentage-point relegation swing and a two-place predicted-table drop, clearing the site’s material-result threshold.

Official Serie A match centre ↗ · Independent match report ↗

Atalanta’s top-six chance falls 2.15 points

The 2-2 draw lowers Atalanta’s modeled top-six probability from 31.70% to 29.55%. Their projected points fall from 58.1 to 57.7, while they remain eighth in the predicted final table.

The completed-result table now has Atalanta 12th on 11 points and Fiorentina 18th on 5 points. The top-six move clears the site’s two-percentage-point material-result threshold.

Frosinone add 1.3 projected points

Frosinone remain 10th in the predicted final table, but their projected points rise from 49.4 to 50.7. Their top-six probability increases from 4.57% to 6.11%, while relegation risk falls from 3.42% to 1.96%.

The completed-result table now has Frosinone 6th on 17 points with a +8 goal difference. Lecce are 14th on 9 points with a -9 goal difference.

Open current and predicted Serie A standings

Verification method

• The 5-1 and 2-2 finals were accepted only after two independent domains corroborated each result, led by official Serie A evidence.
• Before and after runs use the identical deterministic seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedule and model settings; only the completed score changes.
• Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.
• Both Thursday finals are included; no other active competition published a newly completed fixture during this verification window.

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 29 October 2026. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.