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VERIFIED RESULT · SERIE A

Milan's draw trims their top-four route

Adrien Rabiot put Milan ahead before Timo Odenthal levelled for Sassuolo. The verified final score enters the current standings, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on the predicted final table.

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FINAL SCORESassuolo 1-1 Milan
MILAN TOP FOUR25.66% → 23.14%
MILAN POINTS61.2 → 60.6
MILAN TOP SIX53.36% → 50.61%
MILAN TOP-FOUR SWING

-2.52 percentage points

Milan remain seventh in the predicted final standings.

MILAN TITLE

1.73% → 1.38%

The draw removes 0.6 projected points from Milan.

SASSUOLO FORECAST

12th → 13th

Sassuolo move from 46.3 to 46.1 projected points.

RECORDED TABLE

Milan 4th · Sassuolo 9th

Both clubs have completed six verified league matches.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Sassuolo versus Milan unresolved; the after run locks the verified 1-1 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260827 and 100,000 matched paths. Every other recorded result and team-strength input is unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3The recorded table uses completed results; predicted rank and projected points remain model estimates, not guarantees.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 4Bookmaker prices do not alter this sporting forecast, and no stale each-way terms are used.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

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