VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Chelsea's 5-1 win transforms the top-four picture

The verified final score is locked into the current table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the result's effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREChelsea 5-1 Bournemouth

CHELSEA TOP FOUR15.42% → 30.01%

CHELSEA POINTS54.6 → 58.9

PREDICTED PLACE7th → 5th

CHELSEA TOP-FOUR SWING

+14.59 percentage points

The emphatic home win almost doubles Chelsea's Champions League qualification chance.

CHELSEA PROJECTED POINTS

54.6 → 58.9

The result moves Chelsea two places higher in predicted final standings.

BOURNEMOUTH TOP SIX

11.63% → 5.73%

Bournemouth lose 2.6 projected points.

BOURNEMOUTH RELEGATION

10.77% → 17.15%

The forecast now places Bournemouth 13th in predicted final standings.

CURRENT TABLE

Completed results and predicted final standings

CHELSEACurrent: 4th · 10 points from 6Predicted finish: 5th · 58.9 points

AFC BOURNEMOUTHCurrent: 17th · 3 points from 6Predicted finish: 13th · 45.9 points

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Chelsea versus AFC Bournemouth unresolved. The after run locks the verified 5-1 final score.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260827 and 100,000 matched paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3The comparison isolates this completed result; it is a model estimate, not a guarantee of final standings.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827

EVIDENCE

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