Brentford vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Brentford win the strongest outcome at 48.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
BrentfordBRE57.1 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Brentford vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.6%
9.5%
7.7%
7.5%
6.8%
Brentford 1.77 · Newcastle 1.26
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
40.3% to 54.4%
The Brentford home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
6 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Brentford and Newcastle.
Matchweek 16
Saturday, 19 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.14 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.022 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.117 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.096 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Brentford vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Brentford vs Newcastle United?
Brentford win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 48.4%. The draw is 25.1%.
What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Brentford 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 11.6%.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.4% probability.
When is Brentford vs Newcastle United?
Brentford vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 19 December 2026, time provisional.