+0.5 points
Awoniyi improves the promoted side's attacking expectation across every unresolved league fixture.
Taiwo Awoniyi joins Coventry: confirmed model impact
Coventry City officially confirmed Taiwo Awoniyi's permanent move from Nottingham Forest on 17 August. The transfer is now in the live forecast, with 100,000 matched paths isolating the effect on both Premier League clubs.
COVENTRY POSITION19th → 19th
PROJECTED POINTS36.1 → 36.6
RELEGATION RISK61.95% → 59.84%
TOP SEVEN1.12% → 1.36%
-2.11 percentage points
The survival case improves, although Coventry remain projected 19th.
-0.6 points
Forest lose proven centre-forward depth while remaining projected 12th.
+0.94 percentage points
Forest's relegation risk rises from 7.67% to 8.61%.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
Coventry add Premier League finishing and physical presence
Reuters records 21 goals in 90 Premier League appearances for Nottingham Forest. The model applies Awoniyi as a first-team striker for Coventry, while removing his attacking contribution from Forest. Coventry's current striker availability raises the immediate role value, but the input remains conservative because Awoniyi started only three league matches last season.
Coventry confirmed a permanent transfer. Reuters reported a fee of about £9 million, while the clubs did not disclose financial terms.
ASSUMPTIONS
How the confirmed move is applied
EVIDENCE