VERIFIED RESULTS · CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Sporting surge into the projected top three after winning at Lens

The verified Lens 0-2 Sporting and Sabah 2-0 Slavia Prague final scores are locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the two completed results change the direct last-16 and knockout play-off races.

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FINAL SCORESLens 0-2 Sporting · Sabah 2-0 Slavia

SPORTING TOP EIGHT46.32% → 64.40%

SPORTING POSITION8th → 3rd

SABAH TOP 2423.82% → 39.03%

SPORTING TOP EIGHT

46.32% → 64.40%

The away win adds 18.08 percentage points to Sporting’s direct last-16 probability.

SPORTING PROJECTED POSITION

8th → 3rd

Sporting climb five places and add 1.5 mean projected points.

LENS TOP EIGHT

40.44% → 24.43%

Lens lose 16.01 percentage points from their direct-qualification chance.

SABAH TOP 24

23.82% → 39.03%

Sabah’s first win adds 15.21 points to their knockout play-off probability.

SABAH PROJECTED POSITION

31st → 28th

Sabah climb three places and add 1.6 mean projected points.

SLAVIA TOP 24

19.45% → 8.33%

Slavia’s play-off probability falls by 11.12 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, two completed results

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves RC Lens v Sporting CP and Sabah v Slavia Prague unresolved; the after run locks the verified 0-2 and 2-0 final scores.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2The other 18 completed Champions League results are held constant in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other rating and fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827

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