VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE ONE

Bradford win at Hillsborough and jump into the predicted play-off places

The 20 August result is locked into the live League One standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the effect of Bradford City's 1-0 away win on the promotion race.

FINAL SCORESheff Wed 0-1 Bradford

PREDICTED POSITION7th → 5th

PROJECTED POINTS67.7 → 69.4

PLAY-OFF PROBABILITY25.64% → 30.08%

PLAY-OFF SWING

+4.44 percentage points

Bradford move into the model's central play-off projection.

POINTS SWING

+1.7 points

The away win lifts Bradford's mean projection to 69.4 points.

AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

6.67% → 9.00%

The top-two probability rises by +2.33 percentage points.

WEDNESDAY RELEGATION

11.42% → 14.61%

Sheffield Wednesday fall from 13th to 14th in the predicted table.

WHY THE MODEL MOVES

A completed away win replaces every alternative match outcome

The live table now awards Bradford all three points. In the matched comparison, the score is the only changed League One input, so the swing reflects the information in the completed result rather than a bundled rating adjustment.

Bradford's title probability moves from 2.54% to 3.57%, while their relegation probability falls from 3.07% to 1.85%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, same strengths, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats Sheffield Wednesday v Bradford City as unresolved while retaining every earlier verified League One result.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks Bradford City's verified 1-0 away win before simulating every remaining League One fixture.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, isolating this completed result rather than changing team-strength inputs.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The play-off probability is the published probability of finishing third through sixth.100,000 paths · seed 260827

EVIDENCE