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VERIFIED RESULT · SERIE A

Cagliari's 1-0 win creates an early survival swing

Daniel Maldini's first-half goal settled the match. The final score is locked into the live Serie A table, and matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on the relegation race.

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FINAL SCORECagliari 1-0 Lecce
CAGLIARI POINTS40.7 → 42.1
CAGLIARI RELEGATION32.48% → 25.67%
LECCE RELEGATION49.66% → 56.49%
CAGLIARI RELEGATION

32.48% → 25.67%

The win cuts Cagliari's relegation probability by 6.81 percentage points.

CAGLIARI POINTS

40.7 → 42.1

Cagliari gain 1.4 mean projected points while remaining 15th in the mean table.

LECCE RELEGATION

49.66% → 56.49%

The away defeat raises Lecce's relegation probability by 6.83 percentage points.

LECCE POINTS

37.6 → 36.4

Lecce lose 1.2 mean projected points and remain 20th.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Cagliari v Lecce unresolved; the after run locks the verified 1-0 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260907
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other Serie A fixture and rating unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260907
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