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VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Deportivo's five-goal away win reshapes both clubs' outlooks

The 3-2 away win is locked into the current La Liga table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the result's effect on Deportivo's survival outlook and Villarreal's top-four race.

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FINAL SCOREVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo
DEPORTIVO POINTS45.6 → 48.0
DEPORTIVO RELEGATION15.86% → 9.55%
VILLARREAL TOP FOUR49.11% → 38.53%
DEPORTIVO SURVIVAL SWING

-6.31 pp

Their relegation probability falls by 6.32 percentage points.

DEPORTIVO POSITION

15th → 13th

The mean projected finish improves by two places.

VILLARREAL POINTS

-2.3 points

Villarreal fall from 63.6 to 61.3 mean projected points.

VILLARREAL TOP FOUR

-10.58 pp

Their top-four probability falls to 38.53%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Villarreal CF v RC Deportivo unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-3 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260827 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input held constant.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3The completed result updates the current table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260827
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