Ajax beat Atalanta 2-0 — and revive their top-eight race
Eighteen independently corroborated late Europa League and Conference League finals are locked into matched 100,000-path forecasts. No live score is treated as final.
AJAX 2-0 ATALANTAVerified final
AJAX TOP EIGHT24.02% → 40.09%
PREDICTED FINISH14th → 10th
MATCHED PATHS / COMPETITION100,000
Two late goals reset Ajax's outlook
Ajax gain 16.07 percentage points for a top-eight finish and add 1.5 projected points. Their predicted finish rises from 14th to 10th.
Tolu and Ouazane scored in the closing minutes to turn a goalless match into a 2-0 final. The score is recorded by UEFA's official results service and independently reported by AS.
10 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2740071368
UEFA Europa League: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 95.62% → 98.40% | 100.00% → 100.00% | 20.1 → 20.8 | 1 → 1 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 82.41% → 94.11% | 99.92% → 100.00% | 18.1 → 19.4 | 3 → 2 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 87.25% → 88.23% | 100.00% → 100.00% | 18.5 → 18.5 | 2 → 3 |
| Olympiacos | 63.17% → 75.13% | 99.54% → 99.96% | 16.7 → 17.6 | 5 → 4 |
| Juventus | 78.35% → 79.68% | 99.96% → 99.95% | 17.3 → 17.3 | 4 → 5 |
| Sunderland | 56.10% → 58.44% | 99.59% → 99.60% | 16.0 → 16.0 | 6 → 6 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 47.17% → 49.25% | 99.04% → 99.03% | 15.1 → 15.1 | 8 → 7 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 46.37% → 48.58% | 99.35% → 99.20% | 14.9 → 14.9 | 10 → 8 |
| Ferencváros | 34.83% → 36.89% | 99.64% → 99.62% | 14.6 → 14.6 | 11 → 9 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 50.17% → 33.63% | 99.01% → 97.69% | 15.6 → 14.3 | 7 → 10 |
| Beşiktaş | 43.59% → 35.81% | 98.93% → 98.70% | 15.0 → 14.3 | 9 → 11 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 26.30% → 27.84% | 97.49% → 97.32% | 13.5 → 13.5 | 13 → 12 |
| AC Milan | 30.65% → 17.66% | 96.52% → 93.70% | 13.6 → 12.6 | 12 → 13 |
| Crystal Palace | 15.18% → 13.61% | 88.11% → 89.08% | 11.9 → 11.8 | 14 → 14 |
| Real Sociedad | 5.12% → 11.81% | 76.07% → 90.05% | 10.3 → 11.6 | 18 → 15 |
| Sturm Graz | 5.58% → 6.19% | 80.98% → 80.93% | 11.1 → 11.2 | 16 → 16 |
| Salzburg | 7.80% → 4.52% | 80.86% → 76.31% | 11.4 → 10.8 | 15 → 17 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 2.36% → 5.90% | 59.21% → 79.15% | 9.0 → 10.6 | 22 → 18 |
| Omonia | 3.49% → 1.95% | 73.26% → 65.66% | 10.3 → 9.8 | 19 → 19 |
| Celta de Vigo | 0.60% → 2.61% | 39.97% → 68.41% | 7.5 → 9.7 | 28 → 20 |
| Anderlecht | 1.05% → 2.81% | 46.58% → 66.50% | 8.0 → 9.5 | 26 → 21 |
| Celtic | 7.01% → 0.93% | 80.01% → 59.42% | 11.0 → 9.0 | 17 → 22 |
| Sparta Prague | 3.88% → 2.03% | 67.31% → 59.17% | 9.7 → 9.0 | 20 → 23 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.64% → 0.73% | 46.88% → 45.87% | 8.6 → 8.6 | 23 → 24 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 0.44% → 0.51% | 54.52% → 53.73% | 8.5 → 8.5 | 24 → 25 |
| Levski Sofia | 0.14% → 0.64% | 22.98% → 46.09% | 6.3 → 8.4 | 34 → 26 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 3.13% → 0.86% | 63.76% → 45.02% | 9.5 → 8.2 | 21 → 27 |
| OFI Crete | 0.39% → 0.43% | 44.49% → 43.76% | 8.1 → 8.1 | 25 → 28 |
| GNK Dinamo | 0.38% → 0.44% | 34.89% → 33.99% | 7.8 → 7.8 | 27 → 29 |
| Torreense | 0.12% → 0.16% | 26.81% → 26.40% | 7.1 → 7.1 | 29 → 30 |
| Lech Poznań | 0.04% → 0.04% | 19.19% → 18.24% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 32 → 31 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 0.03% → 0.03% | 18.81% → 18.45% | 6.2 → 6.2 | 35 → 32 |
| Celje | 0.17% → 0.07% | 22.06% → 18.49% | 6.3 → 6.1 | 33 → 33 |
| Lillestrøm | 0.29% → 0.05% | 29.30% → 13.21% | 6.8 → 5.8 | 30 → 34 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 0.01% → 0.01% | 7.85% → 7.80% | 5.0 → 5.0 | 36 → 35 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 0.16% → 0.01% | 27.08% → 9.51% | 6.7 → 4.9 | 31 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Ferencváros | 4 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Olympiacos | 5 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Juventus | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Beşiktaş | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Omonia | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 12 | 3 | 6 | -1 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Real Sociedad | 14 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 15 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Sparta Prague | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Levski Sofia | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| GNK Dinamo | 18 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Sturm Graz | 19 | 3 | 4 | -2 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 20 | 3 | 4 | -3 |
| Salzburg | 21 | 3 | 4 | -3 |
| Anderlecht | 22 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| AC Milan | 24 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
| Celta de Vigo | 25 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
| OFI Crete | 26 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 27 | 3 | 3 | -2 |
| Torreense | 28 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
| Celje | 29 | 3 | 1 | -5 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 30 | 3 | 1 | -5 |
| Lillestrøm | 31 | 3 | 1 | -7 |
| Lech Poznań | 32 | 3 | 1 | -8 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 33 | 3 | 0 | -5 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 34 | 3 | 0 | -5 |
| Celtic | 35 | 3 | 0 | -6 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 36 | 3 | 0 | -9 |
8 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2958288531
UEFA Conference League: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 79.03% → 85.75% | 99.51% → 99.93% | 13.6 → 14.3 | 2 → 1 |
| Monaco | 63.86% → 78.15% | 98.62% → 99.90% | 12.4 → 13.5 | 5 → 2 |
| Trabzonspor | 78.99% → 76.96% | 99.77% → 99.79% | 13.5 → 13.5 | 3 → 3 |
| Atalanta | 85.53% → 73.06% | 99.83% → 99.61% | 14.0 → 12.7 | 1 → 4 |
| Panathinaikos | 69.73% → 67.02% | 99.64% → 99.66% | 12.7 → 12.7 | 4 → 5 |
| Sporting Braga | 51.77% → 61.69% | 96.97% → 99.16% | 11.4 → 12.2 | 8 → 6 |
| Lugano | 59.45% → 56.26% | 99.28% → 99.31% | 12.1 → 12.1 | 6 → 7 |
| Hajduk Split | 29.40% → 46.06% | 89.83% → 98.27% | 10.1 → 11.8 | 11 → 8 |
| Copenhagen | 57.13% → 53.39% | 98.50% → 98.56% | 11.7 → 11.7 | 7 → 9 |
| Ajax | 24.02% → 40.09% | 87.25% → 96.97% | 9.3 → 10.8 | 14 → 10 |
| Brann | 35.19% → 32.13% | 96.77% → 97.21% | 10.7 → 10.7 | 9 → 11 |
| Sint-Truidense | 13.98% → 28.47% | 77.79% → 96.43% | 8.5 → 10.5 | 16 → 12 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 28.42% → 25.54% | 94.66% → 94.91% | 9.8 → 9.9 | 12 → 13 |
| Gent | 28.81% → 17.90% | 90.06% → 87.35% | 10.1 → 9.4 | 10 → 14 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 22.41% → 10.32% | 87.26% → 80.49% | 9.5 → 8.6 | 13 → 15 |
| Hearts | 9.48% → 8.29% | 79.37% → 79.92% | 8.3 → 8.3 | 17 → 16 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 8.56% → 7.40% | 78.11% → 78.78% | 8.2 → 8.2 | 18 → 17 |
| Getafe | 6.66% → 5.62% | 76.36% → 76.86% | 8.0 → 8.0 | 19 → 18 |
| Mjällby | 4.73% → 4.02% | 70.30% → 71.32% | 7.7 → 7.7 | 20 → 19 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 5.40% → 4.46% | 69.39% → 70.08% | 7.3 → 7.3 | 21 → 20 |
| Nordsjælland | 4.26% → 3.54% | 60.90% → 62.29% | 7.0 → 7.0 | 22 → 21 |
| Borac | 1.45% → 2.63% | 37.89% → 60.17% | 5.5 → 6.9 | 29 → 22 |
| Midtjylland | 15.97% → 3.07% | 79.53% → 61.39% | 8.6 → 6.8 | 15 → 23 |
| Riga | 3.02% → 2.55% | 55.51% → 56.32% | 6.7 → 6.7 | 23 → 24 |
| Egnatia | 3.31% → 1.61% | 53.42% → 55.11% | 6.6 → 6.6 | 24 → 25 |
| Jablonec | 1.27% → 1.04% | 44.65% → 45.32% | 5.9 → 5.8 | 25 → 26 |
| Pafos | 0.87% → 0.69% | 38.85% → 39.92% | 5.6 → 5.6 | 27 → 27 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1.04% → 0.82% | 39.02% → 39.60% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 28 → 28 |
| Kairat Almaty | 0.26% → 0.23% | 30.31% → 31.38% | 5.3 → 5.3 | 30 → 29 |
| Aarhus | 2.50% → 0.55% | 42.92% → 31.05% | 5.8 → 5.0 | 26 → 30 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 0.30% → 0.23% | 21.38% → 22.35% | 4.4 → 4.5 | 33 → 31 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 0.19% → 0.12% | 14.80% → 15.87% | 4.0 → 4.0 | 35 → 32 |
| Thun | 1.52% → 0.14% | 34.80% → 17.68% | 5.2 → 3.8 | 31 → 33 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 0.95% → 0.09% | 28.94% → 14.28% | 4.9 → 3.7 | 32 → 34 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 0.47% → 0.08% | 19.77% → 14.33% | 4.1 → 3.6 | 34 → 35 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0.05% → 0.04% | 8.05% → 8.41% | 3.1 → 3.1 | 36 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Lugano | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Brann | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Monaco | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Twente | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Sint-Truidense | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Hajduk Split | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Copenhagen | 10 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Mjällby | 12 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Ajax | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Borac | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Atalanta | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Sporting Braga | 16 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Gent | 17 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 18 | 2 | 3 | -2 |
| Nordsjælland | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Egnatia | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Riga | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 22 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| CSKA Sofia | 23 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Jablonec | 24 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Aarhus | 25 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Midtjylland | 26 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Pafos | 27 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Hearts | 28 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 29 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Getafe | 30 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| Kairat Almaty | 31 | 2 | 1 | -4 |
| Thun | 32 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 33 | 2 | 0 | -3 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 34 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 35 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 36 | 2 | 0 | -7 |
Final-only verification
- Eighteen independently corroborated finals are imported: ten Europa League and eight Conference League matches from the 20:00 BST block.
- The before runs leave only this completed block unresolved while retaining every earlier verified final from 22 October.
- Before and after use identical seeds, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedules and model settings. Reported changes are combined block effects, not isolated causal estimates of one match.
- Scores were accepted only after full-time status. Late goals changed Ajax-Atalanta from 1-0 to 2-0 and Monaco-Freiburg from 2-0 to 3-0 before the final capture.
- Current standings from completed results remain distinct from predicted final standings.
The late goals in Amsterdam and Monaco were included only after full time. Every score is paired with an official UEFA result and an independent corroborating source.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 22 October 2026. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
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