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VERIFIED RESULT · CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Haaland's double pushes City into the projected top two

The 2-0 final score is locked into the live Champions League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how Manchester City's away win changes the race for a direct last-16 place.

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FINAL SCOREPorto 0-2 Manchester City
CITY TOP EIGHT49.33% → 68.74%
CITY POSITION6th → 2nd
PORTO TOP 2467.00% → 51.33%
CITY TOP EIGHT

49.33% → 68.74%

The away win raises City's direct last-16 probability by 19.41 percentage points.

CITY PROJECTED POSITION

6th → 2nd

City gain four places in the mean league-phase table and move into the projected top two.

CITY PROJECTED POINTS

14.7 → 16.5

The result adds 1.8 mean projected points across the remaining league-phase paths.

PORTO TOP 24

67.00% → 51.33%

Porto's play-off qualification probability falls by 15.67 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Porto v Manchester City unresolved; the after run locks the verified 0-2 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 2Real Madrid 2-1 Inter, Lille 2-3 Real Betis and Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal are held constant in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other rating and fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260908
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