Hajduk beat Ajax 2-1 — and the top-eight forecast shifts
Ajax's Conference League top-eight probability falls from 49.40% to 26.00% in the matched 100,000-path rerun after all ten early finals. Eight Europa League finals are also verified and included. Later kick-offs are not treated as completed.
HAJDUK 2-1 AJAXVerified final
AJAX TOP EIGHT49.40% → 26.00%
EARLY FINALS18
MATCHED PATHS / COMPETITION100,000
The biggest move is Ajax
The Dutch side drop from fifth to 14th in the predicted final league-phase table, with projected points falling from 11.2 to 9.3. Hajduk move from 18th to ninth: their top-eight probability rises from 13.80% to 30.97%, and projected points rise from 8.0 to 10.1.
These changes compare the whole ten-result Conference League batch with the published pre-match baseline. They are not an isolated estimate of the Hajduk match alone, and a 26.00% chance is not elimination.
What changed in the Europa League?
Sunderland's 2-1 comeback win at Torreense accompanies a top-eight rise from 58.19% to 68.70%. Lyon beat Crystal Palace 3-2; Lyon rise from 42.98% to 55.16%. Milan's 4-0 win at Salzburg accompanies the competition's largest top-eight increase, from 21.69% to 35.38%. Each comparison includes all eight early Europa League finals.
The final scores below come from UEFA's match service, with FINISHED status and a full-time timestamp checked before import. In particular, KuPS–Trabzonspor finished 2-4, Salzburg–Milan 0-4 and Lech–Leverkusen 0-4; earlier live scores or conflicting secondary summaries were not used.
8 VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2740071368
UEFA Europa League: scores and forecast changes
Predicted final league-phase standings
Before → after all 8 early finals. Top eight advance directly; top 24 includes the knockout-phase play-offs.
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 91.42% → 90.88% | 99.90% → 99.91% | 19.0 → 19.0 | 1 → 1 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72.49% → 82.84% | 99.17% → 99.85% | 16.8 → 17.7 | 4 → 2 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 76.61% → 75.81% | 99.39% → 99.44% | 17.2 → 17.2 | 2 → 3 |
| Juventus | 75.83% → 74.87% | 99.39% → 99.41% | 16.9 → 16.9 | 3 → 4 |
| Sunderland | 58.19% → 68.70% | 97.92% → 99.44% | 15.7 → 16.7 | 5 → 5 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 42.98% → 55.16% | 95.16% → 98.66% | 14.4 → 15.6 | 9 → 6 |
| Olympiacos | 47.50% → 46.33% | 96.20% → 96.51% | 14.8 → 14.8 | 7 → 7 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 46.06% → 45.10% | 96.31% → 96.40% | 14.5 → 14.5 | 8 → 8 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 53.99% → 42.54% | 97.56% → 97.18% | 15.1 → 14.3 | 6 → 9 |
| AC Milan | 21.69% → 35.38% | 86.31% → 95.66% | 12.3 → 13.6 | 13 → 10 |
| Beşiktaş | 29.99% → 29.37% | 91.83% → 92.16% | 13.2 → 13.2 | 10 → 11 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 15.85% → 18.54% | 82.13% → 88.11% | 11.6 → 12.3 | 17 → 12 |
| Ferencváros | 19.77% → 19.07% | 86.20% → 86.54% | 12.3 → 12.3 | 14 → 13 |
| Crystal Palace | 28.35% → 18.38% | 90.16% → 86.14% | 12.9 → 11.9 | 11 → 14 |
| Celtic | 18.50% → 17.81% | 83.69% → 84.09% | 11.9 → 11.9 | 15 → 15 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 16.42% → 15.88% | 81.88% → 82.66% | 11.8 → 11.8 | 16 → 16 |
| Salzburg | 21.78% → 10.29% | 86.25% → 77.99% | 12.5 → 11.4 | 12 → 17 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 10.45% → 10.06% | 70.51% → 71.07% | 10.6 → 10.6 | 18 → 18 |
| Real Sociedad | 8.26% → 6.63% | 69.27% → 72.31% | 10.2 → 10.3 | 20 → 19 |
| Omonia | 1.93% → 4.48% | 41.72% → 68.94% | 8.5 → 10.3 | 26 → 20 |
| Sturm Graz | 6.29% → 5.88% | 63.61% → 64.04% | 9.9 → 9.9 | 21 → 21 |
| Sparta Prague | 9.43% → 4.87% | 70.80% → 62.86% | 10.5 → 9.7 | 19 → 22 |
| Anderlecht | 5.84% → 5.58% | 59.06% → 59.67% | 9.5 → 9.5 | 22 → 23 |
| OFI Crete | 3.23% → 2.96% | 52.25% → 53.22% | 9.2 → 9.2 | 23 → 24 |
| Celta de Vigo | 2.92% → 2.61% | 46.53% → 47.08% | 8.5 → 8.5 | 25 → 25 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 2.07% → 1.90% | 42.02% → 42.47% | 8.3 → 8.3 | 27 → 26 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.45% → 2.28% | 42.54% → 42.97% | 8.1 → 8.1 | 28 → 27 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 1.26% → 1.18% | 35.17% → 35.77% | 7.7 → 7.8 | 31 → 28 |
| GNK Dinamo | 1.48% → 1.36% | 36.13% → 36.88% | 7.8 → 7.8 | 29 → 29 |
| Torreense | 2.26% → 0.95% | 43.85% → 34.86% | 8.6 → 7.8 | 24 → 30 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.74% → 0.79% | 27.20% → 28.10% | 7.2 → 7.2 | 33 → 31 |
| Lillestrøm | 0.76% → 0.44% | 26.14% → 25.83% | 6.7 → 6.8 | 34 → 32 |
| Lech Poznań | 0.80% → 0.22% | 27.85% → 19.35% | 7.2 → 6.5 | 32 → 33 |
| Levski Sofia | 0.51% → 0.50% | 23.52% → 23.81% | 6.6 → 6.5 | 35 → 34 |
| Celje | 1.65% → 0.29% | 36.97% → 19.47% | 7.8 → 6.2 | 30 → 35 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 0.25% → 0.07% | 15.41% → 11.15% | 6.0 → 5.4 | 36 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
The recorded table is not the predicted final table above. These standings are frozen at this publication, before the later matches finish.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Omonia | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Sparta Prague | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Juventus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Beşiktaş | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| AC Milan | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Ferencváros | 11 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Benfica | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| OFI Crete | 13 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Olympiacos | 15 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Torreense | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Salzburg | 18 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
| GNK Dinamo | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sturm Graz | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lillestrøm | 22 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Real Sociedad | 23 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 24 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Anderlecht | 25 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 26 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Celta de Vigo | 27 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Levski Sofia | 28 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Celtic | 29 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 30 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 31 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 32 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 33 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Celje | 34 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 35 | 1 | 0 | -5 |
| Lech Poznań | 36 | 2 | 0 | -8 |
10 VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2958288531
UEFA Conference League: scores and forecast changes
Predicted final league-phase standings
Before → after all 10 early finals. Top eight advance directly; top 24 includes the knockout-phase play-offs.
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 79.06% → 79.15% | 99.23% → 99.24% | 13.3 → 13.3 | 1 → 1 |
| Sporting Braga | 74.41% → 74.88% | 98.72% → 98.81% | 13.0 → 13.1 | 3 → 2 |
| Twente | 74.11% → 74.11% | 98.65% → 98.60% | 13.0 → 13.0 | 2 → 3 |
| Monaco | 52.87% → 65.81% | 95.22% → 98.57% | 11.4 → 12.5 | 4 → 4 |
| Trabzonspor | 48.50% → 61.77% | 93.64% → 97.76% | 11.1 → 12.1 | 6 → 5 |
| Panathinaikos | 45.78% → 52.61% | 92.99% → 96.14% | 10.9 → 11.6 | 8 → 6 |
| Hearts | 38.02% → 38.27% | 90.28% → 90.35% | 10.4 → 10.4 | 9 → 7 |
| Gent | 21.87% → 30.49% | 79.58% → 89.13% | 9.0 → 10.1 | 14 → 8 |
| Hajduk Split | 13.80% → 30.97% | 68.57% → 88.71% | 8.0 → 10.1 | 18 → 9 |
| Getafe | 45.00% → 31.73% | 93.37% → 91.00% | 10.9 → 10.0 | 7 → 10 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 33.76% → 33.82% | 89.29% → 89.47% | 10.0 → 10.0 | 10 → 11 |
| Copenhagen | 33.70% → 34.12% | 88.04% → 88.05% | 10.0 → 10.0 | 11 → 12 |
| Lugano | 16.19% → 28.23% | 73.19% → 88.84% | 8.3 → 9.9 | 16 → 13 |
| Ajax | 49.40% → 26.00% | 93.98% → 86.40% | 11.2 → 9.3 | 5 → 14 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 18.83% → 18.96% | 76.97% → 77.18% | 8.6 → 8.6 | 15 → 15 |
| Midtjylland | 26.20% → 17.47% | 82.34% → 78.26% | 9.4 → 8.6 | 12 → 16 |
| Brann | 14.71% → 14.78% | 71.14% → 71.23% | 8.2 → 8.2 | 17 → 17 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 23.86% → 11.64% | 80.98% → 70.84% | 9.1 → 7.8 | 13 → 18 |
| Mjällby | 4.23% → 8.18% | 46.30% → 65.70% | 6.3 → 7.8 | 29 → 19 |
| Nordsjælland | 10.38% → 10.58% | 63.85% → 63.84% | 7.6 → 7.5 | 19 → 20 |
| Sint-Truidense | 9.52% → 9.78% | 60.69% → 60.49% | 7.3 → 7.3 | 20 → 21 |
| Pafos | 6.64% → 6.67% | 54.92% → 55.09% | 6.9 → 6.9 | 22 → 22 |
| Riga | 8.51% → 4.66% | 58.49% → 52.79% | 7.2 → 6.7 | 21 → 23 |
| Egnatia | 5.36% → 3.59% | 50.47% → 51.62% | 6.6 → 6.6 | 24 → 24 |
| Jablonec | 5.25% → 5.33% | 48.67% → 48.35% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 25 → 25 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 4.91% → 4.25% | 46.87% → 50.62% | 6.3 → 6.5 | 28 → 26 |
| Kairat Almaty | 4.02% → 2.23% | 46.48% → 44.85% | 6.4 → 6.2 | 26 → 27 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 4.03% → 4.15% | 42.80% → 43.26% | 6.1 → 6.1 | 30 → 28 |
| Aarhus | 5.94% → 2.61% | 51.52% → 41.16% | 6.7 → 5.8 | 23 → 29 |
| Thun | 2.95% → 3.07% | 37.71% → 37.48% | 5.7 → 5.7 | 32 → 30 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 2.91% → 2.89% | 36.75% → 36.77% | 5.6 → 5.6 | 34 → 31 |
| CSKA Sofia | 4.81% → 2.19% | 45.84% → 37.25% | 6.3 → 5.5 | 27 → 32 |
| Borac | 3.18% → 1.74% | 40.42% → 35.67% | 5.9 → 5.4 | 31 → 33 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 1.62% → 1.61% | 27.68% → 27.85% | 5.0 → 5.0 | 36 → 34 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 3.00% → 1.06% | 37.64% → 27.34% | 5.7 → 4.9 | 33 → 35 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2.68% → 0.60% | 36.69% → 21.27% | 5.6 → 4.5 | 35 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
The recorded table is not the predicted final table above. These standings are frozen at this publication, before the later matches finish.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Mjällby | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Lugano | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Hajduk Split | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Monaco | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Panathinaikos | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Gent | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Egnatia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Getafe | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kairat Almaty | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Midtjylland | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Riga | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Atalanta | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brann | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Copenhagen | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hearts | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jablonec | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nordsjælland | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pafos | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sint-Truidense | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sporting Braga | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thun | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Twente | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 30 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Ajax | 31 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Borac | 32 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| CSKA Sofia | 33 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Aarhus | 34 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 35 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 36 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
Matched-path method and assumptions
- Only the 18 early fixtures with UEFA FINISHED status, a full-time timestamp and verified total scores are imported. Later kick-offs remain unresolved.
- Each before/after comparison uses the same original competition seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, official draw and all other results. It measures the combined early-result batch, not the isolated causal effect of one fixture.
- Top eight means direct progression; top 24 includes knockout-phase play-offs. Current recorded standings are separate from predicted final league-phase standings. Title probabilities include the modelled knockout stages.
- Premier League forecasts are unchanged by these European scores. No retroactive betting pick is created and no locked quote or stake is changed.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 15 October 2026 at 20:07 BST. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Can Ajax still recover a top-eight finish?
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