-2.75 percentage points
PSG remain favourites, but their title probability is now only just above 50%.
PSG are held in Rennes and the title race tightens
The final 2-2 score is locked into the current Ligue 1 standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the completed result changes PSG's title outlook.
FINAL SCORERennes 2-2 PSG
PSG POINTS68.0 → 67.4
PSG TITLE53.48% → 50.74%
TITLE SWING-2.75 points
68.0 → 67.4
The completed draw trims PSG's mean projection by 0.6 points.
91.41% → 90.56%
The top-four outlook remains strong while the title race becomes more competitive.
54.2 → 54.0 points
Rennes remain projected seventh, with a 51.04% chance of finishing in the top six.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
A completed draw removes every PSG-win path
The live table gives both clubs one point. The matched comparison changes only this score, so the movement reflects the new result rather than a bundled strength adjustment.
MATCHED-PATH METHOD
Same seed, same strengths, one newly completed result
EVIDENCE