Dortmund's top-eight chance falls after a 1-0 defeat in Bodø
Seven late Champions League finals and four Championship finals now update the recorded tables and predicted final standings. The largest Champions League swing is Dortmund: a 50.98% top-eight probability becomes 25.21% in the matched rerun.
BODØ/GLIMT 1-0 DORTMUNDVerified final
DORTMUND TOP EIGHT50.98% → 25.21%
NEW FINALS11
MATCHED PATHS / COMPETITION100,000
What did tonight's results change?
- Dortmund fall from fifth to 11th in the predicted final league-phase table, with projected points dropping from 15.0 to 12.9.
- PSG's 4-2 win at Manchester City accompanies a top-eight rise from 38.86% to 60.01%. City's probability falls from 36.53% to 19.57%.
- Villa beat Fenerbahçe 6-0; their top-eight probability rises from 29.58% to 49.14%.
- West Ham win 6-0 at Lincoln. Their automatic-promotion probability rises from 38.59% to 45.32%, while Southampton's 1-0 win at Norwich accompanies a rise from 38.40% to 44.32%.
Each comparison measures the combined effect of that competition's newly completed batch. It does not attribute the whole swing to one match in isolation. The Champions League official schedule is fixed in both runs, so this is separate from the earlier schedule correction.
7 VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2230534884
Champions League: before and after
| Club | Top eight: before → after | Top 24: before → after | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 50.98% → 25.21% | 95.71% → 88.04% | 15.0 → 12.9 | 5 → 11 |
| Bodø/Glimt | 0.12% → 0.59% | 7.80% → 22.27% | 5.3 → 7.6 | 33 → 31 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 38.86% → 60.01% | 91.35% → 98.06% | 13.7 → 15.5 | 9 → 5 |
| Manchester City | 36.53% → 19.57% | 90.66% → 82.70% | 13.8 → 12.2 | 8 → 14 |
| Aston Villa | 29.58% → 49.14% | 88.74% → 97.47% | 13.3 → 14.6 | 10 → 7 |
| Real Madrid | 63.97% → 81.28% | 98.00% → 99.68% | 16.1 → 17.6 | 3 → 1 |
| AEK Athens | 9.73% → 3.02% | 64.91% → 44.68% | 10.8 → 9.1 | 26 → 27 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 0.63% → 1.66% | 19.64% → 38.22% | 6.8 → 8.7 | 30 → 29 |
| Real Betis | 16.34% → 28.61% | 76.17% → 91.16% | 11.8 → 13.5 | 17 → 10 |
| FC Porto | 18.49% → 7.57% | 78.92% → 67.10% | 11.9 → 10.4 | 15 → 25 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 24.82% → 34.72% | 84.34% → 92.89% | 12.7 → 13.7 | 11 → 9 |
| Roma | 16.89% → 7.55% | 77.19% → 66.43% | 11.7 → 10.4 | 18 → 24 |
| Fenerbahçe | 20.28% → 8.75% | 80.19% → 67.35% | 12.1 → 10.9 | 14 → 22 |
Current standings from completed results
This recorded table describes matches already played. The forecast table above predicts the final table and is not a guaranteed outcome.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Real Betis | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Real Madrid | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Manchester City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| AEK Athens | 20 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Bodø/Glimt | 24 | 2 | 3 | -4 |
| Roma | 25 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Fenerbahçe | 28 | 2 | 1 | -6 |
| FC Porto | 30 | 2 | 0 | -3 |
4 VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2772524374
Championship: before and after
Derby's consolation arrived at 90+10: QPR's final score is 4-1. Southampton's existing four-point deduction remains in both forecasts.
| Club | Automatic promotion: before → after | Play-off places: before → after | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 38.59% → 45.32% | 50.06% → 47.47% | 77.5 → 79.1 | 2 → 1 |
| Southampton | 38.40% → 44.32% | 50.22% → 48.18% | 77.3 → 79.0 | 3 → 2 |
| Middlesbrough | 41.94% → 39.86% | 48.74% → 51.14% | 78.6 → 78.6 | 1 → 3 |
| Norwich City | 4.59% → 2.77% | 37.90% → 33.66% | 66.6 → 65.3 | 9 → 10 |
| Portsmouth | 0.46% → 0.61% | 11.02% → 14.60% | 58.7 → 60.1 | 15 → 13 |
| Sheffield United | 1.84% → 1.07% | 23.96% → 20.47% | 63.2 → 62.0 | 12 → 12 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0.06% → 0.12% | 3.21% → 5.13% | 54.0 → 55.8 | 21 → 19 |
| Derby County | 0.74% → 0.35% | 14.64% → 10.79% | 60.2 → 58.7 | 13 → 15 |
| Lincoln City | 2.21% → 1.20% | 26.66% → 22.04% | 64.1 → 62.8 | 11 → 11 |
Current standings from completed results
This recorded table describes matches already played. The forecast table above predicts the final table and is not a guaranteed outcome.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 2 | 10 | 21 | 6 |
| West Ham United | 3 | 10 | 19 | 17 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 10 | 17 | 6 |
| Southampton | 7 | 10 | 16 | 11 |
| Sheffield United | 14 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| Portsmouth | 15 | 9 | 11 | -1 |
| Lincoln City | 19 | 10 | 11 | -10 |
| Norwich City | 21 | 10 | 9 | -3 |
| Derby County | 23 | 10 | 6 | -10 |
HISTORICAL DATA CORRECTION · VERIFIED 14 OCTOBER
Nine omitted Europa League results from 17 September are now included
These matches finished on 17 September, not tonight. The lookback reconciliation found their final scores missing from our persisted forecast. They now complete all 18 matchday-one results before the next round on 15 October. This changes the forecast and current standings; no past betting pick is created or backfilled.
In the same-seed, 100,000-path correction, Celtic's top-eight probability changes from 42.48% to 18.50%. Ferencváros' top-24 probability changes from 62.91% to 86.20%. These are the combined effects of correcting all nine omitted scores.
| Club | Top eight: before → corrected | Top 24: before → corrected | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 62.47% → 76.61% | 97.77% → 99.39% | 15.8 → 17.2 | 4 → 2 |
| Juventus | 70.23% → 75.83% | 98.72% → 99.39% | 16.4 → 16.9 | 3 → 3 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 41.00% → 53.99% | 93.35% → 97.56% | 14.0 → 15.1 | 10 → 6 |
| Beşiktaş | 17.75% → 29.99% | 79.34% → 91.83% | 11.6 → 13.2 | 16 → 10 |
| Crystal Palace | 19.77% → 28.35% | 80.63% → 90.16% | 11.8 → 12.9 | 14 → 11 |
| Salzburg | 14.82% → 21.78% | 75.28% → 86.25% | 11.2 → 12.5 | 18 → 12 |
| Ferencváros | 7.32% → 19.77% | 62.91% → 86.20% | 9.9 → 12.3 | 21 → 14 |
| Celtic | 42.48% → 18.50% | 93.91% → 83.69% | 14.1 → 11.9 | 9 → 15 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 31.25% → 16.42% | 89.58% → 81.88% | 13.1 → 11.8 | 11 → 16 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 24.91% → 10.45% | 84.56% → 70.51% | 12.4 → 10.6 | 12 → 18 |
| Real Sociedad | 16.55% → 8.26% | 78.64% → 69.27% | 11.5 → 10.2 | 17 → 20 |
| OFI Crete | 1.21% → 3.23% | 29.35% → 52.25% | 7.1 → 9.2 | 34 → 23 |
| Torreense | 0.90% → 2.26% | 24.42% → 43.85% | 6.6 → 8.6 | 35 → 24 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 3.52% → 1.26% | 47.43% → 35.17% | 8.7 → 7.7 | 23 → 31 |
| Lech Poznań | 2.33% → 0.80% | 39.54% → 27.85% | 8.0 → 7.2 | 29 → 32 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.38% → 0.74% | 32.49% → 27.20% | 7.4 → 7.2 | 33 → 33 |
| Lillestrøm | 3.30% → 0.76% | 45.52% → 26.14% | 8.5 → 6.7 | 25 → 34 |
| Levski Sofia | 1.79% → 0.51% | 35.40% → 23.52% | 7.6 → 6.6 | 32 → 35 |
Original seed 2740071368; team ratings, schedule and every other score remain fixed in both runs.
Matched-path method and assumptions
- All three competition comparisons replay the exact previously published forecast seed across 100,000 matched paths.
- The Champions League and Championship before states leave eleven newly verified 14 October fixtures unresolved. The two early Champions League finals were already in the baseline.
- The official Champions League schedule is unchanged in both runs. This is a result-only comparison, separate from the earlier schedule correction.
- Team ratings, transfer and availability assumptions, points deductions and every other result are unchanged. Current standings describe completed results; predicted final places remain estimates.
- A separate Europa League reconciliation adds nine omitted 17 September final scores. These are a historical data correction identified on 14 October, not new 14 October matches. No picks are backfilled for these completed fixtures.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · 100,000 paths per competition. Top eight means direct Champions League progression; top 24 includes the knockout-phase play-offs. The Championship play-off band is the site's published positions 3–8.
Dated result evidence
- UEFA: all seven late Champions League finals · 2026-10-14
- Norwich City: official 0-1 Southampton final · 2026-10-14
- West Ham: official Lincoln 0-6 West Ham final · 2026-10-14
- Sky Sports: Portsmouth 3-2 Sheffield United · 2026-10-14
- Sky Sports: QPR 4-1 Derby, including the 90+10 consolation · 2026-10-14
- UEFA: nine omitted 17 September Europa League finals, reconciled 14 October · 2026-10-14
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