The official draw changes the Champions League forecast
All 144 official UEFA league-phase fixtures now replace provisional model-drawn opponents. We have also locked Liverpool's 6-3 win at LASK and Feyenoord's 3-2 win over Como. The tables below separate the schedule correction from those two results.
What changed, and why?
The previous forecast used a provisional draw for uncaptured fixtures. Importing the actual opponents materially changes the difficulty of each club's remaining route. AEK's top-eight probability falls from 48.56% to 9.73%, while Dortmund's rises from 23.08% to 50.98%. These are model-input corrections, not newly completed AEK or Dortmund results.
The previous published state is replayed with its original seed. The current forecast combines the official schedule and the two verified early finals. No ratings, transfer assumptions or in-play scores are changed.
| Club | Top eight: previous → current | Top 24: previous → current | Projected points: previous → current |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 48.56% → 9.73% | 97.44% → 64.91% | 15.1 → 10.8 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 23.08% → 50.98% | 88.34% → 95.71% | 12.8 → 15.0 |
| Real Madrid | 87.71% → 63.97% | 99.93% → 98.00% | 18.6 → 16.1 |
| Feyenoord | 4.49% → 14.70% | 55.10% → 76.37% | 9.4 → 11.9 |
| Como | 22.04% → 10.90% | 89.18% → 71.05% | 12.6 → 10.8 |
| Liverpool | 43.83% → 43.80% | 95.40% → 95.21% | 14.7 → 14.5 |
What did Liverpool's and Feyenoord's wins change on their own?
This second comparison holds the official schedule fixed in both runs. Only LASK 3-6 Liverpool and Feyenoord 3-2 Como change from unresolved fixtures to final scores. Liverpool's top-eight chance rises from 32.92% to 43.80%; Feyenoord's top-24 chance rises from 61.50% to 76.37%.
| Club | Top eight: unresolved → final | Top 24: unresolved → final | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 32.92% → 43.80% | 88.87% → 95.21% | 13.5 → 14.5 |
| LASK | 0.26% → 0.05% | 12.65% → 6.80% | 5.9 → 5.2 |
| Feyenoord | 8.77% → 14.70% | 61.50% → 76.37% | 10.4 → 11.9 |
| Como | 20.28% → 10.90% | 79.98% → 71.05% | 12.0 → 10.8 |
Current standings are not predicted final standings
Liverpool have six points from two completed games and are second in the current table. Feyenoord have three points and are 22nd; Como also have three points and are seventh on goal difference. The model projects Liverpool seventh, Feyenoord 16th and Como 25th after all eight league-phase games. Those predictions are estimates, not guarantees.
Explore current standings and the full predicted final table →Verification and matched-path assumptions
- The previous published forecast used provisional opponents after the captured results. Its exact fixture list and seed are retained for this matched replay.
- The schedule-only control imports all 144 official UEFA league-phase fixtures while leaving LASK-Liverpool and Feyenoord-Como unresolved. The other 27 verified finals remain fixed.
- The current forecast uses that same official schedule and locks only the verified 3-6 and 3-2 early finals on 14 October. Late matches remain unresolved; no in-play score is treated as final.
- All three runs use 100,000 paths, seed 2230534884, and identical team ratings, model version and qualification rules. Published-to-current changes combine the schedule correction and the two results; schedule-only-to-current changes isolate the two results.
- Current standings use completed results, not predicted points. The imported schedule preserves eight unique opponents and four home/four away fixtures for every club.
Top eight means direct qualification; top 24 includes the knockout-phase play-offs. The late 14 October games remain unresolved in this capture.
Dated sources
- UEFA: official full league-phase schedule · 2026-10-13
- Liverpool: official LASK 3-6 Liverpool report · 2026-10-14
- Feyenoord: official 3-2 Como final · 2026-10-14
- Sporting Life: cross-checked final scores · 2026-10-14
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