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VERIFIED RESULT · NATIONAL LEAGUE

Boreham Wood's 3-0 win reshapes the title race

Twelve verified round-three results are now locked into the live standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the completed round changes projected points, places and title probabilities.

FINAL SCOREForest Green 0-3 Boreham Wood
FOREST GREEN TITLE10.48% → 6.51%
BOREHAM WOOD TITLE26.26% → 28.43%
SOUTHEND TITLE48.08% → 51.13%
FOREST GREEN

10.48% → 6.51%

The title probability falls 3.97 percentage points after the home defeat.

FOREST GREEN POINTS

79.2 → 77.9

The projected finish moves from 3rd to 4th.

BOREHAM WOOD

26.26% → 28.43%

The 3-0 away win adds 1.5 projected points.

SOUTHEND

48.08% → 51.13%

Southend remain first and move above 50% after their 3-1 win at Solihull Moors.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed round

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats all 12 National League matches completed on 22 August as unresolved. The after run locks every verified final score, including Forest Green Rovers 0-3 Boreham Wood and Solihull Moors 1-3 Southend United.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical ratings and every previously persisted result unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3Title probability means finishing first. Current standings from completed results remain separate from the model's predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Verified final scores and live competition forecast

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