Official club field active · balanced schedule model552 fixtures · 100,000 paths
ENGLAND · 2026/27 · HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0

Enterprise National League

24 clubs · 46 matches each · champions promoted · six-club play-off field

FORECAST LEADERSouthend United50.6% title
SEASON PATHS100,000Deterministic run
FIXTURES55236 completed
TEAM EVIDENCE92%22/24 clubs
MAX SIM ERROR0.31%Stable run
LIVE RECONCILIATIONCHECKINGPackaged verified schedule · verified snapshot
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION2,714 matches5 completed seasons
SCORING ENVIRONMENT1.56 : 1.28Home goals : away goals per match
LAST CHECKSat 29 Aug, 17:07Checking the strongest available live result sources.
FORMAT MODEL

The official club field and competition calendar are active. Match pairings use a balanced double round-robin sequence until the exact published fixture feed is ingested.

BASELINE FORECAST

National League probability leaders

The top of the current 100,000-path baseline, using calibrated club strength, attack, defence, form, venue and competition-specific outcome bands.

01

Southend United

50.6%TITLE

50.6% title probability, 50.6% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

89.8 expected pts76–103 range
02

Boreham Wood

29.3%TITLE

29.3% title probability, 29.3% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

85.9 expected pts72–99 range
03

Carlisle United

10.3%TITLE

10.3% title probability, 10.3% for automatic and 0.0% danger risk.

79.9 expected pts66–94 range
NEXT ACTIVE ROUND · 1

Next fixture probabilities

Independent 1X2 probabilities, expected goals and fair decimal prices before bookmaker margin.

8 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR1
Forest Green RoversvHornchurch

HOME57%fair 1.75

DRAW23%fair 4.43

AWAY20%fair 4.95

xG 1.89–1.03score 1–1
8 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR1
WorthingvSouthend United

HOME25%fair 3.99

DRAW25%fair 4.05

AWAY50%fair 1.99

xG 1.10–1.66score 1–1
8 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR1
Carlisle UnitedvBoston United

HOME55%fair 1.82

DRAW23%fair 4.30

AWAY22%fair 4.60

xG 1.82–1.06score 1–1
8 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR1
Kidderminster HarriersvScunthorpe United

HOME33%fair 3.01

DRAW26%fair 3.86

AWAY41%fair 2.44

xG 1.28–1.45score 1–1
8 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR1
Boreham WoodvAFC Fylde

HOME73%fair 1.38

DRAW16%fair 6.08

AWAY11%fair 9.21

xG 2.48–0.86score 2–0
8 Aug 2026 · time provisionalR1
WealdstonevSolihull Moors

HOME37%fair 2.70

DRAW25%fair 3.97

AWAY38%fair 2.64

xG 1.44–1.45score 1–1
01 · FORMAT AWARE

Automatic is modelled directly

The simulator counts each path against the actual outcome bands for this competition, not a reused Premier League cut-off.

02 · FIXTURE LEVEL

552 matches priced independently

Venue and opponent strength produce 1X2 probabilities and fair odds for every match in the active schedule state.

03 · COUNTERFACTUAL

Move a club’s strength, then rerun

The Scenario Lab reruns 25,000 matched paths to show how a squad, injury or transfer assumption changes the whole race.

2026/27 PREDICTION MODEL

Enterprise National League predictions, projected table and fixture probabilities

The current Enterprise National League simulator resolves 552 fixtures across 100,000 seeded paths. Southend United is the forecast leader on 89.8 projected points with a 50.6% title probability.

The model uses five completed seasons, venue-adjusted club strength, attack, defence, recent form, the active schedule and verified completed results. Unconfirmed transfer reports and bookmaker prices do not alter the underlying forecast.

  1. 1Southend United89.8 pts50.6%
  2. 2Boreham Wood85.9 pts29.3%
  3. 3Carlisle United79.9 pts10.3%
  4. 4Forest Green Rovers77.8 pts6.4%
  5. 5FC Halifax Town69.5 pts0.8%
How does the Enterprise National League simulator work?

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 resolves every remaining fixture as a scoreline in 100,000 seeded paths. Completed results are locked before points, goals, positions and competition-specific tiebreaks are counted.

Who is predicted to win the Enterprise National League in 2026/27?

Southend United currently leads with a 50.6% title probability. This is a model estimate from the dated published snapshot, not a guarantee.

Do bookmaker odds change these predictions?

No. Bookmaker prices are kept outside the core forecast and are only compared with model probabilities in the separate value layer.

How are transfers and reports handled?

Only officially confirmed evidence can change the core model. Reporter and social signals remain discovery inputs until a club or competition confirms them.