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VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Betis seize a major top-four opportunity

Real Betis won 2-1 at Villarreal to reach 12 points from five matches. The verified final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREVillarreal 1-2 Betis
BETIS TOP FOUR55.71% → 67.70%
BETIS POINTS64.4 → 66.5
VILLARREAL TOP FOUR38.32% → 28.22%
BETIS TOP-FOUR SWING

+11.99 percentage points

The away win lifts Betis' Champions League qualification outlook above two chances in three.

BETIS PROJECTED POINTS

64.4 → 66.5

The result adds 2.1 mean projected points across matched paths.

VILLARREAL TOP FOUR

38.32% → 28.22%

Villarreal remain fifth in the predicted table but lose 1.7 projected points.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates this completed result from simulation noise.

CURRENT TABLE

Betis reach 12 points

REAL BETIS12 points from 5Four wins from their opening five league matches
VILLARREAL2 points from 5Still seeking a first league win
OTHER LATE RESULTS

Serie A also moved

Roma's 2-0 win at Torino raises their title probability from 17.71% to 19.12% and projected points from 70.3 to 71.5.Verified 14 September result · 100,000 matched paths
Como's 2-1 win over Parma lifts their top-four probability from 49.22% to 52.79% and projected points from 65.3 to 66.3.Verified 14 September result · 100,000 matched paths
Inter's 5-3 win over Udinese raises their title probability from 57.44% to 58.55%.Verified 14 September result · 100,000 matched paths
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Villarreal versus Real Betis unresolved. The after run locks only the verified 1-2 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260915 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other La Liga input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 4The three Serie A results are rerun separately with the same matched-path method.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
EVIDENCE

Official scores and independent reporting

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