+1.3 points
The six additions lift Hull to 43.5 mean points.
Hull's deadline-day six lift the survival forecast
Hull City completed six signings in the final hours of the window. This matched 100,000-path comparison applies all six with conservative role and expected-minutes assumptions.
CONFIRMED: all six arrivals are in the verified transfer ledger. The model applies expected minutes and adaptation uncertainty rather than assuming every player starts.
PROJECTED POINTS42.2 → 43.5
RELEGATION36.45% → 31.45%
TOP SIX3.32% → 4.67%
PROJECTED FINISH18th → 17th
-5.00 pp
Relegation probability falls by 5.00 percentage points in the matched comparison.
6
Tim Iroegbunam, Ilyas Ansah, Sorba Thomas, Christos Mouzakitis, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Robinio Vaz receive explicit minutes-aware weights.
100,000 paths
The same seed and completed results isolate the verified deadline-day update.
MINUTES FIRST
Six signings add depth without assuming six instant starters
EVIDENCE
Competition-level confirmation
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