-1.8 points
The additional midfield departure lowers City's expectation across every unresolved league fixture.
Tijjani Reijnders leaves Manchester City: confirmed model impact
Manchester City confirmed Tijjani Reijnders' permanent move to Al-Qadsiah on 19 August. The live forecasts now include the departure, with 100,000 matched paths measuring the additional change after Rodri's move to Barcelona.
CITY POSITION2nd → 2nd
PROJECTED POINTS67.1 → 65.3
TITLE20.92% → 15.98%
TOP FOUR65.37% → 58.02%
-4.94 percentage points
City move from 20.92% to 15.98% for the Premier League title.
-7.35 percentage points
Champions League qualification probability falls from 65.37% to 58.02%.
8.41% → 7.02%
The matched European forecast also lowers City's competition win probability.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
City lose another high-minute two-way midfielder
Reijnders leaves after 50 appearances and seven goals in his first Manchester City season. The model removes his progression, attacking contribution and defensive availability while retaining Rodri's already-published departure.
The reported £52 million deal is treated as permanent. No reported replacement is included until a buying club publishes an official confirmation.
MATCHED EUROPEAN FORECAST
City's Champions League path also narrows
17.0 → 16.6
Mean points across the eight-match league phase.
74.60% → 70.81%
Probability of advancing directly to the round of 16.
ASSUMPTIONS
How the verified refresh is applied
EVIDENCE