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VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE ONE

Blackpool's away win jolts the promotion race

The final 1-2 score is locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes Blackpool and Stockport's projected points, finishing places and promotion probabilities.

FINAL SCOREStockport 1-2 Blackpool
BLACKPOOL POINTS67.3 → 69.4
STOCKPORT TOP TWO48.00% → 40.06%
BLACKPOOL PLACE7th → 5th
BLACKPOOL POINTS

+2.1 points

Blackpool are now projected on 69.4 mean points.

BLACKPOOL TOP TWO

6.16% → 9.59%

Their automatic-promotion probability rises by 3.43 percentage points.

BLACKPOOL PLACE

7th → 5th

The matched forecast moves Blackpool into the play-off places.

STOCKPORT

48.00% → 40.06%

Stockport fall from 80.1 to 78.3 projected points and first to second.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats only Stockport County v Blackpool as unresolved. The after run locks the verified 1-2 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical ratings and every other persisted League One result unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The play-off probability covers positions third through sixth.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 4The live table records completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live competition forecast

Sky Sports match report: Stockport 1-2 Blackpool · 2026-08-22Official EFL League One competition hub · 2026-08-22Open the live League One forecast