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VERIFIED SANCTION · CHAMPIONSHIP

Southampton's four-point deduction is now applied

The EFL's verified 2026/27 deduction is now built into Southampton's live points total and every remaining Championship simulation. Two matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its exact effect on the promotion race.

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POINTS ADJUSTMENT-4 points
CURRENT TABLE6 pts → 2 pts
AUTOMATIC PROMOTION53.40% → 37.37%
TITLE34.17% → 21.24%
AUTOMATIC-PROMOTION SWING

-16.04 percentage points

Southampton's top-two probability falls by 16.04 percentage points once the deduction is applied to every season path.

PROJECTED POINTS

80.4 → 76.4

The full four-point sanction carries directly into the mean final total because no sporting input changes between the matched runs.

PREDICTED FINISH

1st → 2nd

Millwall move to first on mean projected points, while Southampton remain firmly in the automatic-promotion race.

TITLE-PROBABILITY SWING

-12.94 percentage points

Southampton's title probability falls by 12.94 percentage points, from 34.17% to 21.24%.

WHAT CHANGED

The deduction applies to both the current and predicted tables

Southampton have earned six points from three completed matches. The verified four-point adjustment leaves them on two points in the live table and means every simulated final total also starts four points lower.

Their current position moves from fifth to 18th. The forecasted play-off probability rises from 38.98% to 46.72% as more paths move out of the automatic-promotion places.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Every other model input is held constant

ASSUMPTION 1The before run uses the same completed results and team-strength inputs but omits only the four-point deduction.100,000 paths · seed 260831
ASSUMPTION 2The after run applies the verified deduction before simulating every remaining Championship fixture.100,000 paths · seed 260831
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, so the movement isolates the sanction rather than simulation noise.100,000 paths · seed 260831
ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The play-off band covers positions three through eight under the confirmed 2026/27 format.100,000 paths · seed 260831
EVIDENCE

Official EFL and club confirmation

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