VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Arsenal's away win pushes their title chance above 50%

The 0-1 final score is locked into the current Premier League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes Arsenal and Aston Villa's projected finishes.

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FINAL SCOREAston Villa 0-1 Arsenal

ARSENAL POINTS73.7 → 75.0

ARSENAL TITLE45.20% → 50.41%

VILLA POSITION10th → 12th

ARSENAL POINTS

+1.3 points

Arsenal remain first in the mean projected table.

ARSENAL TITLE

45.20% → 50.41%

Their title probability rises by 5.21 percentage points.

ARSENAL TOP FOUR

88.36% → 91.69%

The away win adds 3.33 percentage points.

ASTON VILLA

10th → 12th

Villa fall from 51.1 to 50.3 projected points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Aston Villa v Arsenal unresolved; the after run locks the verified 0-1 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other Premier League input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3The completed result is applied to the current standings separately from the predicted final table.100,000 paths · seed 260827

EVIDENCE

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