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VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Palace's comeback win transforms the survival forecast

Nottingham Forest led early through Dan Ndoye, but goals from Daichi Kamada, Jefferson Lerma and Yeremy Pino gave Crystal Palace a 3-1 win. The final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on the predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREPalace 3-1 Forest
PROJECTED PLACE16th → 12th
PALACE POINTS44.1 → 47.8
RELEGATION23.01% → 10.55%
SURVIVAL SWING

-12.46 percentage points

Palace's relegation probability falls to 10.55%.

TOP-SIX CHANCE

3.28% → 7.89%

The model moves Palace four places higher in the predicted final table.

FOREST RELEGATION

9.53% → 16.25%

Forest fall from 12th to 16th and lose 2.6 projected points.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates the completed results from simulation noise.

AFTERNOON FINALS

Both completed Premier League results

PREMIER LEAGUE · FULL TIMECrystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham ForestLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
PREMIER LEAGUE · FULL TIMEHull City 2-2 EvertonLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
HULL 2-2 EVERTON

The draw's smaller model effect

HULL RELEGATION

35.32% → 40.38%

Hull remain 18th and move from 41.9 to 40.8 projected points.

EVERTON RELEGATION

5.98% → 6.63%

Everton remain 11th and move from 50.5 to 49.9 projected points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified finals, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves both completed 14:00 Premier League fixtures unresolved. The after run locks only the two verified final scores.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both sides of the comparison use seed 260827 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and all other sporting inputs unchanged.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 4Liverpool versus Manchester City remains outside this update because it had not finished when the snapshot was verified.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Final scores and match reporting

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