VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Forest hold Liverpool and cut the Reds' top-four chance by more than eight points

The 2-2 final score is locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the draw changes both clubs' season outlooks.

FINAL SCORELiverpool 2-2 Forest

LIVERPOOL TOP FOUR42.53% → 34.07%

LIVERPOOL POINTS61.8 → 59.9

FOREST RELEGATION12.20% → 8.11%

TOP-FOUR SWING

-8.47 percentage points

Liverpool remain fourth in the mean table, but their top-four probability falls to 34.07%.

TITLE CHANCE

6.46% → 4.12%

The draw cuts Liverpool's title probability by 2.34 percentage points.

FOREST SURVIVAL

12.20% → 8.11%

Forest's relegation risk falls by 4.09 percentage points.

FOREST POSITION

14th → 13th

The away point lifts Forest to 49.8 projected points and 13th in the mean table.

PRO VALUE FINDER · PRE-MATCH RECORD

The draw was flagged at 4.90 before the result

This is the immutable Value Finder snapshot recorded on 23 August, not a price reconstructed after full time.

RECORDED PRICE

4.90

Smarkets draw price captured at 23 Aug 2026, 08:48.

MODEL PROBABILITY

23.50%

Equivalent fair odds of 4.26 from HORIZON 6.2.

MARKET PROBABILITY

19.87%

The model probability was 3.63 percentage points higher.

MODEL EXPECTED VALUE

+15.16%

The draw landed for a net +3.90 units at the recorded one-unit stake.

Historical price snapshot. Odds can move and future outcomes are uncertain. 18+.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats Liverpool v Nottingham Forest as unresolved; the after run locks the verified 2-2 result.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical squad strengths and every other fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3The comparison isolates the completed result. Unconfirmed transfer reports remain outside the live core forecast.100,000 paths · seed 260827

EVIDENCE