VERIFIED RESULT · NATIONAL LEAGUE

Southend lose ground in the title race at Eastleigh

The 1-1 draw is locked into the live National League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the final score changes Southend's title chance and Eastleigh's survival outlook.

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FINAL SCOREEastleigh 1-1 Southend

SOUTHEND TITLE32.17% → 29.00%

SOUTHEND POINTS87.7 → 86.8

EASTLEIGH RELEGATION26.68% → 25.95%

SOUTHEND TITLE SWING

-3.16 pts

The draw lowers Southend's title probability by 3.17 percentage points while they remain second in the mean projection.

SOUTHEND PROJECTED POINTS

87.7 → 86.8

Southend's mean season projection falls by 0.9 points after the verified draw.

EASTLEIGH RELEGATION

26.68% → 25.95%

The late equaliser trims Eastleigh's relegation probability by 0.73 percentage points.

EASTLEIGH PROJECTED POINTS

57.0 → 57.1

Eastleigh remain 16th in the mean final table after taking a point.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Eastleigh versus Southend United unresolved. The after run locks the verified 1-1 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260930

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260930 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260930

ASSUMPTION 3Tamworth's completed 2-0 win over Sutton United remains fixed in both runs.100,000 paths · seed 260930

ASSUMPTION 4Completed results update the live National League table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260930

EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live forecast

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