VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Hull beat Manchester United 2-0 and transform the early survival picture

The final score is locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how Hull’s opening win reshapes the survival and top-four races.

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FINAL SCOREHull 2-0 Man Utd

HULL RELEGATION64.55% → 46.99%

HULL POINTS35.4 → 40.1

UNITED TOP FOUR42.41% → 24.00%

SURVIVAL SWING

-17.56 percentage points

Hull remain projected 19th, but their relegation probability falls below 50%.

HULL POINTS

+4.7 points

The opening win lifts their mean projection to 40.1 points.

UNITED TOP FOUR

42.41% → 24.00%

Manchester United slip from fifth to sixth in the predicted table.

TRACK RECORD

9/1 Hull win landed

The model’s pre-match 2-unit pick returns +18.00 units.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats Hull City v Manchester United as unresolved; the after run locks the verified 2-0 result.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical squad strengths and every other fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3The comparison isolates the completed result. The track-record pick was captured before kick-off and is settled independently from the forecast rerun.100,000 paths · seed 260827

EVIDENCE

Final score, scorers and match report

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