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CONFIRMED SQUAD AVAILABILITY · VERIFIED 3 SEPTEMBER 2026

Richarlison omitted from Tottenham's Premier League squad: model impact

Tottenham's final Premier League registration omits last season's leading league scorer for the first half of 2026/27. A matched 100,000-path rerun applies that confirmed availability loss without assuming he was still a guaranteed starter.

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CONFIRMED AVAILABILITY CHANGE: Richarlison is absent from Tottenham's registered Premier League squad for the first half of the season. This is not a transfer assumption.

SPURS POINTS45.9 → 44.9
PREDICTED FINISH14th → 16th
RELEGATION21.60% → 24.80%
TOP SIX7.00% → 5.56%
POINTS EFFECT

-1.0 point

Tottenham drop from 45.9 to 44.9 projected points.

SURVIVAL RISK

+3.20 pp

Relegation probability rises to 24.80%.

TABLE EFFECT

14th → 16th

The predicted finish falls two places in a tightly packed lower half.

UNAVAILABLE WINDOW

16 league matches

The model applies the omission through the first-half registration period.

WHY THE MODEL MOVES

Scoring depth matters in a survival-shaped distribution

Richarlison led Tottenham's league scoring last season, but the model does not remove a full-time starter's contribution. Spurs' new attacking depth limits the central estimate. The remaining loss is still meaningful because a single projected point changes many closely matched lower-half outcomes.

ASSUMPTIONS

What is fixed in the matched comparison

ASSUMPTION 1Tottenham's published registration is treated as confirmation that Richarlison cannot play in the next 16 Premier League fixtures before January registration changes are possible.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2The impact is depth-weighted because Tottenham added several attacking options and Richarlison was not guaranteed to start every league match.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3The comparison holds the simulation seed, completed results, transfers, injuries and every other verified model input fixed.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 4A move abroad would not restore his Tottenham availability, so it would not require a second Premier League availability deduction.100,000 paths · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Registration and reporting

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