VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Osasuna 1-0 Getafe: survival outlook improves

The completed 31 August result is now locked into the live La Liga table. Two matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how Osasuna's home win changes both clubs' season outlooks.

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FINAL SCOREOsasuna 1-0 Getafe

OSASUNA RELEGATION22.88% → 16.83%

OSASUNA POINTS43.8 → 45.3

GETAFE RELEGATION8.00% → 10.75%

OSASUNA SURVIVAL SWING

-6.04 points

Relegation risk falls by 6.05 percentage points after the home win.

OSASUNA PROJECTED FINISH

18th → 16th

Osasuna gain two places and 1.5 projected points.

GETAFE PROJECTED POINTS

48.8 → 47.5

Getafe lose 1.3 projected points across the remaining schedule.

GETAFE RELEGATION SWING

+2.65 points

Getafe's relegation probability rises from 8.00% to 10.75%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Only the completed score changes between runs

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats only Osasuna v Getafe as unresolved. Every other completed result and forecast input is identical.100,000 paths · seed 260831

ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks the verified 1-0 score before simulating the remaining La Liga schedule.100,000 paths · seed 260831

ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, so the measured movement isolates this result rather than random simulation noise.100,000 paths · seed 260831

EVIDENCE

Official result and live forecast

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