Troyes cut their relegation probability by 9.25 points
Six late finals are locked into matched 100,000-path forecasts across Ligue 1, Serie A, La Liga and the National League. Current standings from completed results and predicted final standings remain separate.
TROYES 2-0 LE MANSVerified final
TROYES RELEGATION43.17% → 33.92%
TROYES POINTS34.2 → 35.6
LE MANS RELEGATION39.44% → 47.91%
Troyes reshape the Ligue 1 relegation race
Troyes' verified 2-0 win cuts modeled relegation probability by 9.25 percentage points, from 43.17% to 33.92%. Their projected points rise by 1.4, from 34.2 to 35.6, while Le Mans' relegation probability rises by 8.47 points to 47.91%.
OTHER MATERIAL MOVES
Milan, Barcelona, Betis, Rayo and Boston all gain
VERIFIED RESULTS
All six newly reconciled finals
Verification method
- Six final scores were accepted only after two independent domains corroborated each result, with official competition or club sources used where available.
- Before and after runs use identical deterministic seeds, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedules and model settings; only the relevant completed scores change.
- Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.
- No unconfirmed transfer report changes a core input.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · 100,000 matched paths for every affected forecast · verified 31 October 2026. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.
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