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VERIFIED RESULT · CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

PSV's home draw pushes them outside the projected top 24

The 1-1 final score is locked into the live Champions League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the draw changes the race for a knockout play-off place.

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FINAL SCOREPSV 1-1 Shakhtar
PSV TOP 2464.32% → 49.81%
PSV POSITION21st → 25th
SHAKHTAR TOP 2441.62% → 48.72%
PSV TOP 24

64.32% → 49.81%

The draw lowers PSV's knockout play-off probability by 14.51 percentage points.

PSV PROJECTED POSITION

21st → 25th

PSV lose four places in the mean league-phase table and slip just outside the play-off line.

PSV PROJECTED POINTS

10.1 → 8.8

The result removes 1.3 mean projected points across the remaining league-phase paths.

SHAKHTAR TOP 24

41.62% → 48.72%

Shakhtar's knockout play-off probability rises by 7.10 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk unresolved. The after run locks the verified 1-1 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260910
ASSUMPTION 2Fenerbahçe 1-1 Roma is held constant in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260910
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other rating and fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260910
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